Proper market analysis, and information not factored into the betting line are two of the greatest tools to attack a Sports Book with. Low and behold, the biggest game of the year, the game that garners bragging rights, Super Bowl XLVI, offers both elements tenfold.
When breaking down any type of market, gauging the end price is critical in determining whether the current starting point offers substantial return on investment. For a sports handicapper, the betting market is no different. How this ties into Super Bowl 46 you ask? Well, on January, 22nd this line opened with the New York Giants a 3.5, and even 4-point underdog at some respected shops. As I type this on February 2nd, the New York Giants are an even money +2.5. Meaning, if you were inclined to wager on the New York Giants, your boat has sailed off into the sunset without you on it. The NFL is a league driven on parity, and with nearly 16% of all NFL games falling on 3 (largest key # in football), a wager on the New York Giants +2.5 has lost all value at this point.
Knowing where the line is going allows sharp bettors to get ahead of the market, and having had the opportunity to speak with @ToddFuhrman, Senior Race and Sports Analyst for @CaesarsPalace he’s estimated that only 15% of the total Super Bowl XLVI handle has been wagered thus far. Because of that, sharps raced to scoop +3.5/4 on the Giants, knowing the public sentiment will increase for New York as game day approaches. Bettors that took the points early with New York did so as a true position, but the majority dove in attempting to create a middle — and now as they watch this line tumble quicker than an old lady down a flight of stairs, it’s bringing joy to their face. Options are a beautiful thing, and sharp bettors now have a bevy of them. They can take back New England -2.5 and look for the game to land “3” like it does so often and clear two bets (middle). The other opportunity relies on the recreational bettor, and that opportunity will open an even greater middle position.
Casual bettors making their inaugural wager on Super Bowl Sunday aren’t interested in risking more money than they can win. It’s been this way for a long time, and that fact will prove itself as the NFL continues to grow yearly. The thought process of a recreational bettor is; why bet $110 to win $100, when I can bet $100 and win $130? The way you do that is by betting the Giants on the money line (straight up, no points). It’s easier for a novice bettor not to worry about points, price, etc. and strictly root in the team of their choice. Because of the expected Giant money line wagers come Sunday, it will drive the money line price down on the Patriots. So all the sharp bettors that took the Giants +3.5/4, will then come back with the Patriots money line near kickoff creating an even larger middle opportunity. From an information standpoint, speaking with the groups I do, they aren’t just looking for buy backs, but to take a true position on the Patriots money line at the target price of -130 or better.
Prop Bets: Propositional wagers typically yield a far greater edge than the game itself. Simply put, books have had 6 months to figure these two teams out and align a tight number, but with prop bets that’s not the case. With an influx of propositional offerings, it provides a greater opportunity for error that sharp minds can manipulate. Below are a couple free pick prop bets that you should consider making, and staying far away from.
Prop Bet To look At:
Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback? Yes (-155); No (+145).
This may seem like a crap shoot at first glance, but knowing team and player tendencies make these types of wagers show a positive EV over time. Based on supporting data we know the New York Giants like to receive when winning the coin toss. They’ve done so 8 of 10 times this season. On the flip side, New England almost always defers when they win. In fact, since the 2008 season the Brady-Belichick duo has deferred 28 consecutive times when winning the toss. This is the very reason why New York is nearly a 3-1 favorite to get the ball first in Super Bowl XLVI. What this means? The stronger-legged kicker in Stephen Gostkowski will be booting the ball down field to start the game. Gostkowski has a career average of nearly 66 yards per kick-off, but remember, he plays outdoors in some of the worst conditions where swirling winds are a huge factor. Fortunately, with this prop bet we have a common denominator that can further display tons of value. In 2005, Adam Vinatieri played for New England while averaging 61.5 yards per kick-off in the high winds of Foxborough, one season later he became a Colt and his kick-off average increased 4.2 yards in the comfy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. What a coincidence! Super Bowl XLVI is being played at Lucas Oil stadium where roughly 76% of all kick-offs have resulted in touchbacks. If we can see that same increase in average from Gostkowski come Sunday, that opening kick-off should sail 6-yards deep into the endzone at the very least. Don’t be shy, at that rate, this propositional wager shows a +EV rate well beyond it’s current price.
Prop Bet to Avoid At All Costs:
Heads (-105); Tails (-105)?
Fun, and smart rarely find themselves located in the same sentence when the topic is sports betting. Apparently, betting which side a coin lands on constitutes entertainment? Having a complete stranger determine my fate in seconds with a flick of the thumb doesn’t come off as “fun,” to me. One sports book I speak with daily says the coin toss is their largest bet prop each and every Super Bowl. The problem is; the price point is -105 for both heads and tails. This might be the only wager in the history of sports betting where you are GUARANTEED to lose money over time. You would think people know flipping a coin is exactly a 50/50 proposition, but that doesn’t seem to stop them! For the 50 times you would win this wager, you’re getting paid $1.00. For the 50 times you lose this wager, you’re paying the books $1.05. Losing money isn’t fun, guys. STAY AWAY! Note: In the 45 previous Super Bowls the coin has landed on heads 23 times, tails 22.