NFL Midseason Betting Report: Most and Least Profitable, and Teams you should Buy and Sell Down the Stretch

Payne Insider - Posted on 04 November 2014

Written By: Billy Attridge

 NFL Midseason Betting Report: Most and Least Profitable Teams Image hosted by Payneinsider.comSports bettors are constantly searching for relevant information that can aid them in their quest to profit in the evolving NFL sports market. Taking a step back to observe which teams have fattened pockets, and which have been costly, is an important strategy when investing in the NFL market. Always remember, no matter how good or poor a team might be, the point spread is the great equalizer. The Oakland Raiders might be 0-8, but they are 4-4 against the spread, while the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks are just 3-5 against the spread.


Most Profitable ATS:
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
Arizona Cardinals: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Least Profitable ATS:
New York Jets: 1-7-1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-6-1
Tennessee Titans: 2-5-1
Washington Redskins: 3-6

Most Profitable Over Teams:
Green Bay Packers: 7-1
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
New England Patriots: 7-2
Denver Broncos 6-2
New Orleans Saints: 6-2

Most Profitable Under Teams:
Buffalo Bills: 6-2
Detroit Lions: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Probably the most important seasonal trend pertaining to bettors and sports books alike, is the run of primetime overs leading up to this point. Hitting at a 22-6 clip (79%), the “Primetime Over” spot is usually reserved for recreational gamblers looking to play catch-up, or double up, at the end of a day. "Primetime Games" are considered Thursday Night 7-2 to the Over, Sunday Night 8-1 to the Over, and Monday Night 7-3 to the Over. Some professional bettors make a habit of attacking the opening total, betting over, with the knowledge that come game-time, middle opportunities and easy buy-offs will be available. It is very rare that any teams ATS, or Over/Under results, stay running at a clip like this for an entire season. Bookmakers have to adjust; therefore, often creating value on the opposite side(s). Many treat betting as a hobby, but don't forget, it is a market, and any efficient market will have corrections.

A Team to Consider Backing in the Second Half:
New York Jets: I cringed as soon as I finished typing ‘Jets’. But let’s take a deeper look. Sitting at the bottom of the barrel in turnover margin (-13), it is no surprise that the Jets have posted the worst ATS record of any team so far. However, a change at QB to the veteran Vick may spark some fight in this locker room. Head Coach Rex Ryan is most likely dead in the water, but he is a player’s coach, and my feeling is that the team will respond with strong efforts in the second half of the season. This is a team that gets fantastic trench play on both sides of the ball; Top 5 in yards per carry (4.7), and Top 5 in yards allowed per carry (3.5). My only concern; Vick is a turnover-prone quarterback, and ball-security is a must to covering spreads. His size has always been an issue in the redzone, and some of the tread on his wheels have worn. This week, New York has dropped from +5.5 to +4 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers at BetOnline.

A Team to Consider Fading in the Second Half:
Houston Texans: J.J. Watt and the Texans sit at 4-5 (5-5 ATS), and seem to be in the hunt for the AFC South crown. The Texans are fortunate to be in the mix of things, considering Watt has accounted for 3 touchdowns, and they carry a +7 turnover margin heading into the second half of the year. To be frank, this team doesn’t have much on either side of the ball. Quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick will lose you more games than he will win, and outside of Watt, this defense has failed to slow down above average offenses. Houston faces a stiff test out of their bye week at the Browns (another team that was a strong candidate to land the fade spot). Obviously, as sports investors everything depends on the number. With the upcoming slate of games (Cleveland, Jacksonville 2x, Tennessee), there may be value betting against the Texans as favorites in certain spots.

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