Pythagorean Theorem, Turnover Margin, and how it Correlates to the Seattle Seahawks Season Win Total Expectation

Payne Insider - Posted on 31 August 2015

Written By: Billy Attridge

 Seattle Seahawks Betting Win Total Under 11.5 Pythagorean Theorem Image hosted by Payneinsider.comOn September 10th, sports fans and sports investors alike are blessed with NFL Regular Season football. While many sharp investors enter the Win Total market early, maneuvering around and grabbing key numbers, there are certain NFL teams that require patience, whose optimal market entry point is later rather than sooner. This year, the Seattle Seahawks fit that bill.

Let’s start off with an easy, simplistic method of evaluating a team’s performance from the previous year, the Pythagorean Theorem. Seattle benefited from a positive turnover margin of +9, which, after being factored into the formula, gives us a win total of 10.78 wins in 2014. The Seahawks “outperformed”, going 12-4 and one play away from winning the Super Bowl. Based on this theorem, Seattle won 1.22 more games than the basic statistics would indicate.


Seattle also lost two key players in center Max Unger and cornerback Byron Maxwell. Center is a crucial position in the NFL, as they are largely responsible for communication on the offensive line, calling out protections and developing a strong relationship with the Quarterback. Unger was one of the best in the game, and the Saints are extremely fortunate to have him. Watching the offensive line during this preseason is a must for those trying to evaluate the Seahawks from a personnel perspective. Pete Carroll was recently quoted as saying; "We're all a little bit frustrated" in regards to the offensive line and offense in general.

There are the contract issues; Russell Wilson cashed in big, Kam Chancellor is still holding out. Chancellor’s holdout could damage this secondary as it gets ready for it’s season opener at St. Louis, as there is not much talent after him at the safety spot. He is the heart and soul of the defense, and many close to him say he's "dug in" and "willing to sit out the entire season." While it doesn't appear it's in his character, It will be interesting to see how Wilson performs with his new big contract. Russell is also going through a divorce, while now in a new public relationship which seems to have some "baby momma drama" going on; lots of distractions. Can Seattle continue its NFC dominance despite the changes in the locker room? I have my doubts.

When price shopping, one must not settle for 1,2, or even 3 sportsbooks. Equipping yourself with as many outs as possible is crucial in sports betting, yet seems to be so rarely discussed. There are plenty of Under 11(+115) or better prices out there. I have seen some 11.5’s juiced between -130 and -140 towards the under. With the Rams and Cardinals both sporting dominat defensive lines they will look to challenge Seattle for the NFC West division. Seattle Seahawks Under 11.5 (-130) or Under 11 (+115) is the way to look!

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