Shocking NFL Betting Trend. Situational Bettors Key on Specific Spots, but Suprisingly, this Shouldn’t be One You Circle

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Shocking NFL Betting Trend. Situational Bettors Key on Specific Spots, but Suprisingly, this Shouldn’t be One You Circle

Written By: PayneInsider
Assist From: JustinZovas
Hockey Assist From: So_Money_Sports

The NFL preseason is in full swing. Anticipation for Thursday, September 5th is palpable. But with that comes a bevy of talking-heads and typically, those talking-heads spew drivel. Being able to decipher information, from information WITH VALUE can be a daunting task this time of year. An endless amount of sports betting trends will invade your Twitter timeline. Airwaves will be polluted Friday’s with handicappers revealing “information” like: the Giants’ are 7-1 ATS their last 8 Sunday night games when the temperature is below 71 degrees AND THERE’S A FULL MOON! For whatever reason, and it’s extremely sickening, that kind of information ‘moves the dial’. Reality is; that tidbit is worth less than the pocket lint you just found in your favorite pair of cargo shorts.


Finding trends that are real, trends you can touch, trends you can feel are the kind of trends that have predictive value. One situation I discuss every NFL preseason has the aforementioned elements: Teams that played in the Hall of Fame game are 34-16-3 (68%) ATS their 2nd preseason game versus a team making its preseason debut. The team with a preseason game under its belt has worked more kinks out, acclimated themselves to in-game situations, has a better idea of position battles, and most of all, teams tend to play starters longer in game two than game one.

That said; all betting trends should be used as a starting point, and not the sole reason for investing. Moreover, the preseason situation mentioned above will reach a point where there’s no longer value. Books will catch on, and not only adjust their numbers for that situation, but likely over-adjust to where value teeters to the opposing side. Situational bettors tend to be like bulls; head down, charging forward, and with little to no regard. They blow through dead end signs and fail to realize that at some point they’re investing in over-adjusted situations.

Each summer I attempt to uncover a few NFL trends for specific situations that hopefully encompass the aforementioned predictive value. Unfortunately, a situation I wholeheartedly felt data would support fell extremely short. The ATS trend for this specific situation in question is: Teams off of a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent. You can feel this trend, you can touch this trend, it’s real.

I expected to find a “letdown spot” bettors could fade for the team off a division win, on the road, and a “play on spot” bettors could invest in for the non-conference home team. After all, Team A faced a division rival in a hotly contested game. Practice was more intense than usual that week. Team A won a physical division game. Human nature takes place and Team A feels good about themselves, complacency sets in after a big win (fat and happy). Team A looks at the schedule for the following week and it’s on the road versus a non-conference opponent. Energy at practice for Team A isn’t anywhere close to the previous week when preparing to face their divisional rival – focus is immensely lacking.

Well…

Since 1989, teams off a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent are 166-152-15 (52.2%). This was absolutely shocking. Obviously, 52.38% is your break even point at -110, so this isn’t profitable, but it was mind-blowing to see that much success in a perceived “let down situation”. I fully expected this to be a profitable “fade situation,” but in the last 23 seasons, it would have yielded a 47.8% win rate.

It’s great to classify certain situations and spots, but they must be backed up with cold, hard facts. I hear all too often about fading teams in this specific situation, and it simply doesn’t hold water. Like any trend, even if it yields a profitable betting situation, it should only be the starting point for deeper analysis.

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