Written By: Billy Attridge
One way investors can monitor the sports betting market is by comparing futures odds over a specific set of time. One practice I perform each summer is compiling odds from sports books prior to the NFL preseason, and then note changes after the teams dress rehearsal’ game has concluded.
For most teams, that’s the 3rd game, but every year there are exceptions and this preseason was no different. For Carolina and Kansas City, it was week 2. Although, Jeff Fisher and his Rams took a far different approach this season, he typically uses his teams final preseason game as the dress rehearsal. This exercise provides an opportunity to peak at teams the sports betting marketplace has found value in. Using odds from BetOnline, here are some notable changes:
San Diego Chargers (33/1):
The Chargers were 48/1 prior to the preseason, and it’s easy to see why their odds have dropped. Quarterback Phillip Rivers has had a stellar start to the NFL year (15 for 18, 166 yards and 1 TD), and Coach Mike McCoy has resurrected this offense by utilizing talented players like Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The main concern for San Diego lies in the defense, where a questionable secondary, coupled with tackling concerns, could lead to disaster. A spot they couldn’t afford any injuries was up the middle, and with Kwame Geathers now on the IR, it could be tough to overcome that loss. Regardless, if they can produce an above .500 record in the division, and Rivers can continue his outstanding play behind center, the Chargers have a very good shot at reaching the playoffs this year. This isn’t a public move, some of the sharpest bettors I speak to have invested in San Diego futures.
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St. Louis Rams (85/1):
One of the few teams to see a drastic odds change in either direction this year; the Rams were 50/1 before July to grab the Lombardi Trophy. So what happened? Yes, Sam Bradford is out for the year with his second ACL tear. But does backup quarterback Shaun Hill require a 30-cent drop? Let’s dig deeper. Rookie left tackle Greg Robinson has struggled, and guard Rodger Saffold has failed to see any significant time this preseason (injury). The Rams NFC West opponents all bolster quality defensive lines, which could present major problems for OC Brian Schottenheimer, who I’m not a fan of to begin with. Starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson is out 4-6 weeks with an MCL sprain, leaving the secondary scrambling for a quality replacement. Outside of the defensive line, it’s difficult to find talent on this roster. With one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, the Rams may be in a heap of trouble this year. In sports betting, we often hear the phrase; ‘Buy low, Sell high’. Not sure there is a better time to sell St. Louis than right now, Week 1 against a team wiseguys are high on this year in the Minnesota Vikings.
Indianapolis Colts (18/1):
A significant drop from 25/1, the Colts are hopeful that this is their year to challenge for the AFC Title. This move makes sense. Depending on where you shop, the Colts range from (-150 to -190) to win the AFC South and secure a playoff berth. Andrew Luck is primed for another quality season, and with an abundance of talent at the WR/TE position (Hilton, Wayne, Nicks, Allen, Fleener), this offense has Top 5 potential. Though Luck and the offense will likely receive the newspaper clippings, it’s the defense that may be the difference. GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano have worked on the defensive side, bringing in DE Arthur Jones, LB D’Qwell Jackson and S Mike Adams. The Colts also face the mediocre-at-best NFC East, playing the division’s best team (Eagles) at home on MNF. And let’s not forget, their home in the AFC South is likely the weakest division in all of football.