5/4 Tuesday - NBA Free Pick


Payne Insider - Posted on 03 May 2011

Pick: 
Grizzlies Vs. Thunder @9:30PM Eastern Standard
711-712 Grizzlies - Thunder UNDER 198

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Depending on where you do your shopping (hopefully you have multiple outs) this line sits at 197.5-198. It opened at most places in the 198.5-199.5 range. I can tell you first hand this was a game circled by the sharps, and as soon as this line opened they were ready to bet it UNDER. Typically, if you're going to bet unders in the later playoff rounds, Game 2 and further into the series are the best times. We try to avoid Game 1 unders for the simple fact that greater value lies later in the series. Refs swallow the whistle the later the series goes on, this means not as many attempts at the free throw line, allowing teams not to score with the clock stopped. We also see teams become more familiar with their opponent, and after 85-90 games teams don't change that much. So the familiarity leads to lessor surprises, which equal less scoring. Game 2 intensity is also at an all-time high. It's weird that we should expect anything less from athletes in the playoffs, but the fact of the matter is teams tend to give EXTREME EFFORT when their backs are against the wall. Effort = Defense! When the home teams drop Game 1, all out effort becomes pertinent in Game 2. The series is in the books if the road team takes the first two games on the road, plain and simple. We also find ourselves getting a few points of added value in this game. These teams haven't changed, they are the same, but public perception is they just scored 215 points in game 1. So Vegas has to further paint that picture to the public who love to bet over -- and in doing so they abstract more value from the over, giving the under greater, enhanced value.

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