Archives 2013

Written By: @ToddFuhrman

We’ve all been there before: stuck racking our brain with how to structure monies on a Saturday when 15 plays across 4 sports appear too good to pass up. Let me quiet a myth right now: there’s no fixed number of games to play but a bettor should always be cognizant of how much liability is being extended at any given time. I know this seems somewhat counter-intuitive for those just learning the ropes; however, like every other lesson in sports gambling, it will make sense in time as your experience grows and leads us to the discussion of units: the case for and against flat betting.


Bettors talk about unit count all the time to keep tabs on their results. It’s an effective way to share with friends and members of the gambling community relative strength of each play without disclosing how much makes up an actual bet. Units should rarely be weighted the same across all sports since every bettor has his or her strengths and needs to strike from an advantaged position. The reality of sports betting is the better you become, the harder it is to get down large amounts anywhere, let alone in the smaller niche markets (WNBA, AFL, Golf, NASCARR). However, I digress a bit from my main thesis of trying to make a case for and against the merits of flat betting no matter the sport, no matter the streak, and no matter the strength of the play.

You know what it feels like; staring at a game all week you knew was worth way more than just a single play but you didn’t pull the trigger because of “sound money management principles.” Talk to the elite gamblers in the world and they’ll be the first to tell you recognizing the edge, knowing when to take shots, separates the best from the rest. There’s a reason Billy Walters wagers $25,000 one game and $3,000,000 the next. INCREASED EDGE! Over the course of a calendar year, a handful of situations present themselves and no bettor should be shackled by the normal tenants of traditional money management. Assessing your positions should be going on throughout the year, always seeking an opportunity to make larger bets when the confluence of handicapping angles all align themselves.

Math says the sheer volume of plays it requires to flat bet games doesn’t make the strategy financially viable over the long term unless you have a hefty bankroll. Hypothetically, let’s figure you make 2,000 bets a year for a dime ($1,000) per bet. Knowing the gold standard for handicapping is 60%, we’ll figure for argument’s sake our bettor hits 58% of wagers which places them in the 99.9 percentile. Rather than account for money lines, exotics, futures, etc. we’ll assume standard 11/10 juice for each wager made.

2,000 wagers x 1,100 per wager = 2,200,000 total annual risk.

Winning 58% of your bets leaves you with a record of 1160 – 840 which won’t account for a handful of pushes and other assorted outcomes.
With these numbers, your potential annual net income is (1160*1000) – (840*1100) = 320,000. Not a bad little living if you can swing it.

Now if your win percentage drops to 54%, the math looks very different: (1080*1000) – (920*1100) = 160,000.

If you’ve stayed with me this long you obviously can extrapolate results and figure out exactly what the net looks like for a $100, $250, $500 bettor. Without over simplifying, a drop of 1% in your annual win percentage creates a net change of roughly 40,000!

Why is this important? The reality is if you can identify winning spots 54% of the time at minimum (52.4% is the break even point), you should be able to effectively locate opportunities that call for 2x, 3x, and maybe even 5x your normal wager. Traditionally, I believe the more junior you are in betting sports, flat betting makes the most fiscal sense. It allows you to avoid huge volatile swings from differentiated units and can protect you from going on tilt or over extending yourself at the wrong time. Additionally, most recreational bettors have a difficult time identifying their edge. Part of the strategy behind flat betting is that it doesn’t place added emphasis on must win games over others; you just determine if a situation warrants a wager and your amount to bet is standardized.

From my experience, figuring out the sports where you have an edge is the turning point in a gambler’s evolution. Keeping accurate records for actual dollars won/lost (you can’t take units to the bank) and itemized accounting means you’re ready to take sports gambling more seriously. It’s not for everyone and I’ll never say it is, so for those who want to be taken seriously by their peers or want to be honest with themselves, your bank roll serves as the only scoreboard you’ll ever need.

When it comes to betting sports for keeps, the best bettors in the world know when it’s time to take shots. For those looking to stay in the game a long time and approach more casually, flat betting can be your friend. Setting realistic goals and knowing your objectives will always help you make the best financial decisions in any market.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The 2012-2013 season has been in the books for over a month now, and we are finally beginning to see the future take shape around the country. Personnel changes in the form of transfers and recruiting will play a big role as always, and it’s never too early to start considering who will benefit most.


1. Illinois Fighting Illini

John Groce moved from Ohio to Illinois to take over the Fighting Illini, and he did a solid job year one. Second round exit in the NCAA tournament at the hands of Miami has to be viewed as at least a mildly successful season for a first year coach, but losing three key seniors will sting for Illinois moving forward.

In early May, Darius Paul, the younger brother of Brandon, announced his intentions to transfer to Champaign and follow in big bro’s footsteps. Paul was the MAC Freshman of the year last season at Western Michigan, and he brings size and athleticism on the interior with him.
Paul joins Illinois State forward John Ekey and Seton Hall guard Aaron Crosby as the latest installments in the future of Illinois basketball. Ekey will be available immediately as he is pursuing a graduate degree not offered at Illinois State. He made 18 starts for the Redbirds a season ago and provides size.

Crosby leaves Seton Hall after an abysmal season in which he served as one of the lone bright spots for the Pirates. He’s an aggressive and quick guard who can hit from the outside but most importantly, provides ball-handling and leadership for a group that lost a ton at the guard position in the wake of graduation.
Crosby will have to sit out next year according to NCAA guidelines, but he will be eligible to practice with a team that will feature 5 incoming freshman within a class that is ranked number 17th nationally by ESPN. The Illini also boast two additional transfers from a season ago who will be eligible to play this year.

While Illinois will still certainly be young in 2013-2014, the plethora of talent heading to Champaign is apparent. Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State have to be considered conference heavyweights at this point, but the conference as a whole should be down next season, which could allow for the Illini to make another run come March.

2. California Golden Bears

The Golden Bears made tremendous strides in 2013, and they gave Syracuse a massive scare despite shooing 19% from three in the NCAA tournament before being bounced.

Mike Montgomery is a known commodity and proven winner. His roster will experience some turnover given the loss of Allen Crabbe and Robert Thurman, two of the Bears’ most reliable pieces, but with Justin Cobbs back, he’ll be set at the most important lineup slot: point guard.
The expected growth of rising senior Richard Solomon and the defensive attributes of junior-to-be David Kravish, and the Bears are very unlikely to fall flat on their face come November.

Jabari Bird is an Oakland native who, at 6’6, can play both shooting guard and small forward. He possesses good range and explosiveness, and he could make Cal fans forget about Crabbe sooner than later.

Kameron Rooks is still a raw prospect hailing from the southern part of the state, at a seven-footer with a wealth of upside. He won’t have to play right away and can add depth to Montgomery’s front court rotation.

Ricky Kreklow never quite fit in the way one would hope in year one following his transfer from Missouri, but he played well in the NCAA tournament and should see a major increase in minutes this year as the only other experienced point guard on the roster.
Arizona should still be the dominant group in the Pac-12 and many will assume Cal falls off in the wake of their departures, but I’d keep an eye on Cal.

3. Tennessee Volunteers

Yes, the Kentucky Wildcats have reloaded and look to be nothing short of dominant next year bringing in a recruiting class for the ages. Additionally, the Gators’, while losing a few bodies, will be even stronger inside for 2013-2014.
That said; Tennessee is a team that could make major headway in the SEC next year after a disappointing finish last season. Their key issues coming into the off-season center around the depth of a roster that had been more or less decimated following program violations after Bruce Pearl’s departure.

Incoming shooting guard Robert Hubbs is the fourth ranked prospect at that position according to ESPN, and A.J. Davis of Norcross, GA is a 6’6 small forward with good versatility. The two together were expected to add that missing depth.

There’s been some messy news out of Knoxville that Trae Golden, the Volunteer’s steady hand at the point for the last few years, will be transferring out. Head Coach Cuonzo Martin states it was due to academic reasons (including plagiarism), but many believe Golden was forced out of Tennessee by Martin due to the lack of available scholarships. Regardless of reason, it’s a huge loss as Golden registered 30 minutes or more in the Vols’ final nine games of the 2012-2013 season. He had more turnovers than assists in only 6 games all year, a telling stat considering the fact he played the position so extensively. This loss could be crippling for a program hoping to take a big step forward in what will be Cuonzo Martin’s third year at Tennessee.

4. Oregon Ducks

Yes, Tony Woods Arsalan Kazemi, E.J. Singler and Carlos Emory are all gone, and it’s unlikely they will be replaced quickly, but Dana Altman will catch a break by grabbing Mike Moser from UNLV in a rather unexpected turn of events.

Moser will graduate now and become eligible immediately. Moser is an incredibly talented player who battled injuries and lack of production while sitting behind stud freshman Anthony Bennett a year ago. Moving up to the northwest and getting the chance to play with Dominic Artis in a conference that generally lacks great defense should be helpful for him.

Oregon has their share of question marks, but they have seven commits coming in for the 2013-2014 season, including; Jordan Bell of Long Beach and A.J. Lapray, both of whom will help along the frontline.

They also get two brothers from San Diego in Tyree and Terrell Robinson, adding further depth to an already stacked backcourt. The Ducks’ will be somewhat thin across the frontline, but Moser can make up for that, and when you think about this conference, no one outside of ‘Zona has great depth in that area.

5. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophers’ started its off-season by grabbing Richard Pitino in a move that was both bold and questioned. Tubby Smith’s removal was questionable and unfair, but I do think baby Pitino is going to be a good hire, and Richard should have little trouble recruiting — he’s well connected down south and in the northeast. Simply put, father Rick won’t let him fail and will undoubtedly send him transfers year in and year out.

Dre Mathieu is a talented and athletic JUCO guard comparable to Artis who can help them immediately. Andre and Austin Hollins return to Minny as well, and the addition of a talent like former UCLA signee Allerik Freeman would be another coup. The Gophers’ lose quite a bit in their frontcourt with the graduation of both, Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe.

Coach will use the speed and athleticism he possesses at the guard position to play up tempo and in your face, a Pitino staple. Increased offensive efficiency with his group will help and Minnesota will have a chance to be good quite soon.
Too often a season ago we saw a hesitant group that was almost afraid to advance beyond the restraints of their half-court offense. They looked uncomfortable and lacked confidence at times, relying far too much on offensive rebounding to generate scoring. That will change under Pitino given his past body of work, and given the question marks surrounding some former Big Ten powers; this Minnesota team could make moves once again.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The NCAA men’s Final Four is an event comparable to the Super Bowl in the sense that it provides a
great gambling opportunity for bettors to cash in before season’s end in what is an annual, televised
event for which viewership will be excessive.

More viewers equals more gambling and, as a result, a market with increased intrigue is established. But
the weekend in total should be analyzed before decisions are made, and thus we’ll look to break down
everything these national semifinals have to offer in order to make you a more informed viewer.

Star power is important here as well. Kids are playing not only for their seasons and possibly their
careers, but also for draft positioning. That should not be overlooked. Did we mention the national title
is on the line?

Michigan – Syracuse
No one is making more of a name for himself than Trey Burke right now. True college fans knew he
was the nation’s best point guard coming into this tournament. But I’m not sure anyone had a ton of
confidence in this team’s chances after the brackets were released.

Burke brings his team into this Final Four coming off of maybe the three best halves of basketball
anyone has played all year. The Wolverines are hot, and their youth has vanished in the wake of
newfound swagger and confidence.

Mitch McGary is finally becoming the player many of us envisioned. He is also surrounded by a versatile
group of forwards who not only defend the rim admirably, but also do a good job of taking away interior
passing lanes.

Syracuse has two dynamic guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter Williams. But their offense is
most effective when dominating the offensive glass. Their misses become assists and it feeds their effort
defensively.

Marquette made only 12 field goals on Saturday, but 5 of them came in a flurry of mid-range excellence
from star forward Davontae Gardner. Gardner did nothing fancy or flashy. He established position at the
foul line, turned and fired.

I’m not certain Michigan has an athlete quite capable of doing what Gardner did in the regional final, but
they can attack the middle of the zone off of ball screen action. I’d also look for Glenn Robinson to be a
presence in the short corner, as that is an additional soft spot for this defense.

On the flip side, watch to see how John Beilein uses the 1-3-1. The Big East in general is a conference
where most teams use 2-3 because it is so widespread. In an interview with ESPN earlier this week, Pitt
coach Jamie Dixon emphasized its importance.

As stated, working the ball into the middle of the 2-3 is paramount to success against it. A 1-3- 1
alignment forces the offense to look away from the middle. It also forces guards to more or less play
“hot potato” because of trap potential.

Syracuse’s offense looked great against Cal, Indiana and Marquette. How will it look against the 1-3-1?
That’s anyone’s guess. As good as Carter-Williams has been, this will be a new test for him, and he has
been turnover prone at times.

All in all, if Michigan can defend the glass and prevent easy baskets, they are simply too efficient on
offense to lose this game. They have the “look” of a team on a mission, and Burke can launch himself
into legendary status with a few more performances like what we’ve seen recently.

Wichita State – Louisville
I do not want to dismiss Wichita State in anyway. I felt like they possessed great value prior to the Sweet
16, and they proved me correct. But when I look at this matchup on paper, I’m just not sure they’ll be
able to score enough to win.

Wichita has several players capable of beating Louisville’s press and getting into the teeth of that
defense. Malcolm Armstead and Cleanthony Early are two who can make plays in the mid-range area.

But many teams make the mistake of trying to get to the rim against Louisville, and while I usually favor
an attacking approach (similar to what Russ Smith regularly employs), I’m just not sure that works here.

Wichita State will need interior scoring to hit anywhere near an offensive efficiency number sufficient to
enable them to win, and I don’t know that they can do it. Their low block scorers stand 6’8, and it will be
tough for them to finish against the size Louisville has.

Where this game could get interesting is on the other end, as Wichita has both the defensive mentality
and overall toughness to stop the Cardinals from pulling away in this game.

The total for this game opened at 130.5 and seems to be hovering in the 131.5/132 range now, a
number that seems relatively accurate. Louisville played Kentucky in last year’s Final Four. That game
went under rather easily, and one could say this matchup offers some similarities to 2012, only with
Louisville’s role reversed.

Louisville plays slightly faster than Wichita, and they will look to speed them up. The injury to Kevin
Ware was gruesome but should also not be overlooked in regards to depth. Ware is a major force
defensively, and their ability to press over a sustained period will be undermined in his absence.

The Shockers only turned it over 3 times in the second half of the OSU game. So the slow pace Wichita
will want could work, and they may be able to hang around and keep the game tight enough that an
under is a legitimate possibility.

Written By: Billy Attridge @WATT_05

Final Four Betting Odds Preview:

#1 Louisville (33-5) vs. #9 Wichita State (30-8), 6:09 pm EST
Line Opened: Louisville-10, 130.5
Current: Lousiville-10.5, 132.5

Key Factors:
Louisville’s Defensive Pressure -The pressure that Russ Smith and Peyton Siva put on opposing guards in the full court is suffocating, and as long as referees are allowing them to guard in such a physical nature, it will continue to be. They currently own the best Defensive Assist to Turnover Ratio in the country (0.546), and are 2nd in Defensive Turnover per Offensive Poss. (23.5%). Wichita State is 94th in A/T ratio (1.07), and 198th in Turnover per Offensive Poss. (19.5%). While Wichita State did play (and beat) VCU, the quickness and defensive rotation of Louisville is at another level at this point in the year.


Field Goal %- In their four tournament games, Louisville is shooting 55.075% from the field, which is 5% better than the #1 shooting team this year, Creighton (50.1%). This spike can be attributed to forcing turnovers leading to easy buckets in transition. The Cardinals ability to beat the defender off the dribble (again, Smith and Siva) forces help side defense and open looks for C Gorgui Dieng under the basket, who just so happens to be 20-24 in the tournament (83.3%). Wichita State is stingy on defense, and has been consistently good all year. In the tournament they have held 3 of the top 15 Offensive Efficient Teams (Pitt, Gonzaga, Ohio State) under 36% from the field.

Wichita State’s Rebounding Advantage- Wichita State crashes the boards on both ends of the floor effectively. They rank 9th in the country in Defensive Rebounding % (76.2), and 14th in Offensive Rebounding % (37.6). The Shockers do a terrific job at team rebounding, as 6 of their top 7 players (minutes) average at least 2.6 RPG. When guards buy into the concept of team rebounding, second chance points are hard to come by. Louisville does rebound effectively on the offensive end (11th) but gives up plenty of boards on the defensive side (168th).

Situational- The motivation angle coming from Kevin Ware’s injury and the fact the tournament is being played in his hometown Atlanta cannot hurt their chances. Louisville should also be the crowd favorite, and you have to wonder whether the long layoff might cool down the Shockers 3-point % (45% last 3 games), and regress back to mean (34%)

Conclusion: How this game is officiated is huge. I do lean Wichita State at 10.5, mainly because Gregg Marshall is great off of a long delay, and I think Wichita State will try and make this a half-court game on both ends. They are 7-2 vs. RPI Top 50, and if the number gets to 11, it’s a sure play. The total might get pushed to 133 or 133.5, as 88% of public tickets written are on the over. If it reaches 133, I would look under.

#4 Michigan (30-7) vs. #4 Syracuse (30-9), 8:49 pm EST
Line Opened: BOL SYR-1.5, CRIS-Pick, PINN- Mich-2, 131
Current: Michigan-2, 131

Key Factors:
Michigan’s Offensive Efficiency- The Wolverines are 1st overall in Offensive Turnover % (14.2%), mainly due to outstanding guard play by POY candidate Trey Burke, who personally carries better than a 3:1 Assist to Turnover ratio. Their ability to rotate the ball around the perimeter quickly enables them to get off quality 3-point looks. They are 17th in the country in 3-point % (38.5), and 2nd in the country in Points per Poss. (1.16). The emergence of Freshman F Mitch McGary gives Michigan solid size and toughness in the paint, and a legitimate inside-out game.

Syracuse’s 2-3 Zone- Syracuse’s vaunted 2-3 zone is giving opponents fits in the tournament, mainly due to their size and arm length. Jim Boeheim recruits long, athletic bodies that suit his zone, and with an average height of 6’7, his talented group of guys can close out quick and disrupt shooters anywhere on the court. They have held opponents to an average of 18.35% from 3-point range in the tournament, and this includes Montana and Indiana, who both shot north of 37% behind the arc this year. Syracuse ranks 2nd in the country in Block % (11.6%), and 7th in the country in Steals per Poss. (13.4%), which can be attributed toward strong defensive rotation and strength on the defensive interior (C Baye Keita).

History- As great a coach as John Beilein is, he has never successfully figured out Boeheim’s 2-3. As a head coach at the West Virginia from 2002-2007, Beilein went 0-6, and along with 2 losses as a Richmond head coach and 1 at Michigan, Beilein slumps into this game with an 0-9 record vs. Boeheim. Granted, he has never had a team with as much talent and skillful shooters as this Michigan one does, but it is still worth mentioning.

Conclusion: Books obviously had different opinions on this game at the open, but all have seemingly agreed on Michigan-2, 131. I lean Cuse/Under here. Both teams like to play slightly below average pace, and even though Michigan struggles to defend at times, I’m not sure Syracuse is ready to bust for 65+ points. The only way Syracuse wins this is with a defense first mentality, forcing Michigan to take long, contested jumpers. This number has a slight possibility of reaching 3 by game-time, and if this is the case, take the Orange plus the points.

Written By: Richard Salvatori – You can follow him on Twitter @DickieSalvatori

Since FGCU broke down all historical barriers en route to a Sweet 16 appearance, all of the talk has centered around head coach Andy Enfield, his apparent wealth and his smoking-hot wife.

But take a look at this roster and you will see a lot more than just a coach whose pockets may or may not be stacked. Enfield had a plan from the very start in developing this group, and their thrashing of the Miami Hurricanes back in November should have been a warning sign for all to take note of.

Bernard Thompson stands only 6’3 and weighs only 166. But the Atlantic Sun Defensive Player of the Year could probably care less. He was the 89th ranked shooting guard by ESPN in the class of 2011 rankings, but I’m guessing that mattered little to Enfield when he was going through the recruiting process.

Thompson is lightning quick and was a key figure in applying ball pressure against Georgetown in the first round. Gulf Coast incorporated a zone look that exhibited constant movement and excellent close-out techniques.

Joining him in the backcourt is Brett Comer, a 2 star recruit who came in the same year as Thompson. Comer had several outlandish games this season in terms of turnovers. He coughed up the pill 6 times against VCU, 5 times against Duke and Maine and 7 against Mercer, all losses. But Comer didn’t seem to remember any of that when he took the court against the Hoyas and Aztecs in Philly last weekend. He had 10 assists and 2 turnovers against G’Town and 14 assists versus 3 turnovers on Sunday against SDSU. Comer is a smooth guard who plays with confidence and looks for his teammates relentlessly. He is the definition of a true, lead guard, and Enfield must be supremely confident with him running the show.

Next up is (shockingly) only one of two seniors on this dynamic roster: Sherwood Brown. Brown is listed at 6’4 but he plays like a 6’6 or 6’7 type of wing. He is solid defensively, a good shooter and does not force plays. But perhaps his biggest contribution would have to be the pregame speeches he delivered before both victories. A smaller man may have tried to do too much or relish the moment and camera. Brown spent a maximum of 30 seconds in each cameo getting his teammates fired up with winks and grins that showcased a carefree and spirited attitude that more youngsters should observe.

Eddie Murphy is maybe the best all-around comedian ever, but Eddie Murray is not quite as famous. The 6’8 senior averages slightly under 4 points per game and only a shade over 17 minutes per outing. During an eight game stretch that saw the Gulf Coast go 4-4, including losses to Maine, East Tennessee State and Lipscomb, Murray tallied only a total of 18 points wasn’t playing much. Since that Lipscomb loss, Murray has seen double digits in minutes in every game and has provided the spark that only an athletic, 6’8 body can provide for a school that one would think is limited in terms of inside depth.

Eric McKnight and Chase Fieler, however, would probably disagree with that assertion as well. Both completely dominated the glass and protected the rim admirably in their two upsets. McKnight is an incredibly interesting case. While watching him on Sunday night, I couldn’t help but question as to how he ended up on Andy Enfield’s roster. His bio on the FGCU athletics page indicates Indiana, Maryland, Missouri and (wait for it) Georgetown also recruited him. He went to Iowa State and apparently had little success there. Playing behind Royce White, a young Melvin Ejim and Craig Brackins perhaps makes more sense out of the situation. Whatever he lacked at Iowa State, he clearly developed under Enfield, and he hasn’t looked back since. McKnight has two years left at FGCU, and although he lacks the skillset to enter the draft this year, I expect pro scouts to take serious notice sooner or later.

And let’s not forget Christopher Varidel. Look at any play by play from Sunday night and his performance at the beginning of the second half was stunning. He was not only connecting from deep, but was penetrating and getting to the foul line at will against one of the top 30 defenses in America. But things weren’t always so grand for Varidel. He came to this country from Switzerland with the hopes of playing major college basketball. His father’s passing combined with thoughts of transferring after a 10-20 season back in 2011 had him questioning his decision to leave home. Yet, Varidel stayed the course. And he, like Brett Comer who also lost a father to a battle with lung cancer just a few years ago, were rewarded for their labor on Sunday. Their offensive production was outstanding, and it has become apparent that the Gulf Coasters are no one trick pony.

I expect the Gators of Florida to put Gulf Coast away for good tonight. I just think they are too good and too sound defensively. Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m wrong, But either way the boys from Fort Myers have left us with a story for the ages. They are clearly a group that not only believes in themselves and each other, but also in their head coach.

We can sit here and analyze this tournament all we want. From statistics to trends, the way handicappers try to get an edge varies greatly depending on who you talk to, but let’s not forget to sit back and enjoy the moment. The kids playing out here all have different stories and backgrounds. They represent America and the diversity and work ethic that make this country what it is.

The NCAA tournament is about as awesome an event as you can create and Florida Gulf Coast reminds us that, despite the ups and downs of everyday life and the hardships that many may endure, you just have to survive and advance.

Written By: Richard Salvatori – You can follow him on Twitter @DickieSalvatori

Like most sports fans we constantly debate topics with friends, and while we like to think we win every time, that’s not the case. However, bragging rights are on the line as Tournament time approaches and we fill out our brackets trying to find the four teams that will meet for all the marbles in Atlanta.

One argument and theory I hear over and over again is how “open,” this field is. ESPN and CBS analysts along with countless other talking heads believe that virtually anyone has the ability to advance deep into the field this year, and there’s SOME validity to that.

For starters, the combined losses amongst the four top seeds is 19, which is the most in quite some time. In 2008, the one seeds combined for a total of 9 losses. That year saw all 4 one’s advance to the national semifinal.

Digging deeper into the pairings there’s more parity than I initially thought. What separates Creighton from Duke (a potential second round matchup)? Is Kansas any more dangerous than Georgetown or Miami? That said, if you look at the field in general, it’s hard to argue that the top 15–20 teams or so don’t stand out.

A week ago, Gonzaga blasted St. Mary’s on a neutral floor for the third time. St. Mary’s was ranked 31st in the last installment of Braketology 2013 according to PayneInsider.com, and 35 in ESPN’s BPI. They should be viewed as a serious contender, yet they haven’t been able to hang with their WCC rival at all.

Indiana’s record against the top 100 is borderline absurd, and Louisville has 5 losses by a total of 21 points, none of which have come within the last 5 weeks. The Cardinals were on our most undervalued list weeks ago when Vegas installed them at 12-1 to win the National Championship, now; Louisville is the favorite at 4-1.

When you take a closer look at the mid majors and teams in the 7-12 seed range, you see teams like San Diego State, Wichita State, North Carolina and Cincinnati. No disrespect, but I’ve seen major weakness in each. SDSU looks absurdly discombobulated at times on offense. Wichita State is young and has struggled with mediocre MVC competition in recent weeks. North Carolina’s most impressive non-conference win was by a thin margin against a UNLV team trying to figure out its rotation in the wake of Mike Moser’s return.

Bad performances will be fresh in the minds of gamblers and prognosticators alike come Thursday, so it’s possible and even likely that one or more of these teams will revert back against the trend and come up with a great performance when not expected.

Let’s face it; the NCAA tournament is an event unlike any other. To say you know how it’s going to play out is simply moronic. Basketball is such a great sport because of the setup. You have five players who can practice their craft anywhere and everywhere. Middle Tennessee State can compete with Alabama in basketball, whereas in football it’s virtually impossible.

It’s a science that is incredibly unscientific, and if people just come to the conclusion that the field is wide open because we only have one team with less than four losses, I’d beg to argue that their version of science stands without reason.

Sure, a dark horse could emerge, but where is that team located? The 2005-2006 George Mason Final Four group included 3 seniors (all of whom were starters and major contributors) as well as a legendary coach who now resides in Coral Gables. Patriots’ had an elite point guard in Tony Skinn who was not only second team all CAA that year, but won conference defensive player of the year. Jai Lewis was a bruising, 6’7, 275 pound center that gave Mason a presence in the middle in addition to their 48th ranking in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency.

VCU accomplished the same feat a few years later and that roster was also spiced with serious talent and veteran leadership. That Rams team was 32nd in offensive efficiency and 86th in defense. They were battle tested coming into the tournament and used a high pressure defense to mix it up with opponents.

Butler has also made advancement seem possible for smaller and less well known schools in recent years. VCU and Butler are no longer true “mid-majors.” Those programs are now well known and have greater access to recruits on a national level.

Cinderella stories are great, but looking at the top 15-20 teams you can see a bit of a disparity compared to the rest. It’s not to say a lower seed can’t rise up to the occasion and take down a few heavyweights en route to an improbable run, but don’t get carried away thinking a 16-seed is going to do the impossible.

There’s a few lower seeded groups to focus on, namely Iowa State and Oklahoma. Don’t sleep on Bucknell or Colorado either, but each has major question marks. Iowa State is 121 nationally in defense and relies on the three point shot to an absurd extent. If they get hot, look out, but that recipe could also equate to an early exit. Oklahoma’s defense is a touch better (82), but have lapses on offense. The Bison and Buffaloes also have offensive question marks.

History and data tell us that you need a good balance in those categories to advance, and most teams outside the top 30 simply don’t have much of a shot. In addition to historical data, let’s revert back to some top line analytics. Number one seeds own a 78% win percentage in the tournament overall. They hold an above 80% win percentage in round 2, around 75% or so in round 3. Elite 8 numbers are a bit more mixed, but the ones also convert at an over 60% clip when in the Final Four.

At the end of the day, take a look at the top of the rankings as opposed to trying to find a gem or two further down the list. It’s not as fun or as creative to those around you, but it will probably help your bankroll over the next month. Sure, your friends will give you an extra stroke if you predict Georgetown’s demise versus Florida Gulf Coast, but placing a bet on Wisconsin to crush Ole Miss has the identical eleven-to-ten payday.

Written By: Benjamin Tenenbaum @BTenenbaum

Every year millions of college basketball fans around the world await word on who is in, and who has been left out of the brackets. You see, it has become a national pastime, right up there with Super Bowl squares and rooting against the Yankees in October. However, before we get to that point there are two weeks that college basketball gamblers see as their Super Bowl. This year, the Brady’s and Manning’s are found in the Big Ten Conference which currently boasts five teams that have graced the top 10 most of the year. That is astounding considering the Big East has two and the ACC has one. This is going to make for an exciting tournament in Chicago and opportunities for sports gamblers.

So how does one go about capping the big ten tournament. Taking a look at past tournaments it has been a breeding ground for the top seed. In fact, five of the last six champions have been the one seed. Not much for parity there, until you realize that the two or three seed has only played in the championship game twice in that same time frame. So who are some sleepers and what should we look for this year?

Penn State (+100000):
Sorry, but you have no chance. Unlike in 2011 when you rode senior Talor Battle into the championship game as a 6 seed, you lack the senior leadership and guard play that will be needed to advance in this tournament. Oh, and you play Michigan who certainly has not forgotten the last time these two teams met.

Northwestern (+50000):
Sorry, but you have no chance. Had you not been dealing with injuries this could have been an exciting year. Early on you took down Baylor and Illinois State but alas, a first round matchup with Iowa, even in a local venue, means you are out first round.

Nebraska (+75000):
Sorry, but you have no chance. A first round matchup with Purdue is not what they were looking for. Nebraska has played decent beating Iowa and Illinois in the last couple of weeks but Purdue will be too much here. Talley will find scoring against a loose Purdue defense but they really
have nobody to match with Hammons and Marcius down low and the speed of Terone Johnson on the perimeter.

While lower seeds have produced several memorable upsets in this tournament (See Illinois 2008) the
Big Ten this year is just too stacked and too tough for one of these three teams to advance. However,
this is where it starts to get good.

Minnesota (+2500):
All year long Minnesota has frustrated bettors. With the Hollins brothers, Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe much was expected out of this team. But in true Tubby Smith fashion they have horribly underachieved. Ken Pom still has them as the 23rd ranked team but even that may be generous.
With recent losses to Nebraska and Purdue, Minnesota has somehow found themselves on the bubble. The Big Ten tournament is exactly what Minnesota needs. Tubby plays his bench and will keep his guys fresh for a run in this tournament. Not only do I believe they can beat Illinois but I also see them beating Indiana in the second round.

Illinois (+6000):
With the games in Chicago, Illinois will have a strong support system for the tournament. However, after a strong run in February they have regressed the last several weeks into another one of their shooting slumps. This team is not afraid to shoot but Minnesota represents a tough matchup for Illinois. Minnesota guards like to get in your face on defense and Illinois will lose the rebounding game. Tubby will make sure Illinois does not get open threes and will play a tough man defense. Illinois also lacks the speed and strength to bang with Minnesota. This is a huge game for both teams and Illinois is sitting on the bubble. This just might be where it bursts.

Purdue (+9000):
What is needed in this year’s Big Ten tournament to advance? Solid point guard play. What else is needed, a solid big. What does Purdue have? Both. Coming into this season there was a lot of optimism for Matt Painters squad. Purdue is a tough team with size and speed. Their recent win at
Wisconsin was really the first time Purdue put it together since destroying West Virginia back in January. I really like their potential first round game against Nebraska and could see them make life tough for Ohio State in the second round. Purdue is playing better now than when they previously played Ohio State.

Iowa (+4000):
As previously mentioned Iowa will be too tough and fast for Northwestern in the first round. In the second round they get a rematch with Michigan State. This time, team leader Roy Marble will be on the court. Michigan State thou is playing too good right now and this is where Iowa goes down. A good showing thou could see them dancing.

Michigan (+625):
Still stinging from the loss to Indiana, Michigan will take care of business in a major way against scrappy Penn State. This would set up a matchup with Wisconsin. The last time these two teams met, it was an overtime thriller. Michigan thou, as the best five seed ever, in any tournament, will use
their speed and force Wisconsin to play faster than they want. If Michigan can dictate tempo, Wisconsin lacks the firepower and offense to keep up. This could set Michigan up with Indiana second round. If that happens, I like Indiana as Indiana has just been a better team and Michigan will be too emotional for the game. However, if Michigan gets Minnesota, they will advance to the finals.

Wisconsin (+900):
While I love Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament, they have just not been good in the Big Ten Tournament. They have won only 1 game since 2009 and will find themselves against a better and faster Michigan team. Look for Wisconsin to do damage and potentially make the sweet 16 in the NCAA but do not look for them to be playing on the weekend in Chicago.

Michigan State (+325):
Not only has Adreian Payne proven to be an absolute beast in the Big Ten this year but Gary Harris has quietly been the best freshman in the conference. This team is big, long, athletic and they take good shots (outside of Keith Appling). Michigan State gets a great draw with either Iowa or
Northwestern and then either Ohio State or Purdue/ Nebraska. Either way, with all of those teams, I am taking Michigan State. Tom Izzo has done a tremendous job with this team and should be in line to make the finals of this tournament yet again.

Ohio State (+330):
If they can find another scorer besides Thomas, Ohio State will be dangerous in both tournaments. Aaron Craft has been driving more recently and is playing tougher now more than ever but the problem with Ohio State has been the same every game. Who else will score? The problem with
facing a Michigan State is that Izzo will be ready to take Thomas out of the game with Payne and force someone else to score. Will it be Smith Jr, will it be Craft, the problem is we just do not know and I do not trust that. Ohio State has won five in a row coming in including a win over Michigan State.

Indiana (+175):
Winners of the regular season conference, this team has higher goals than this tournament. They are already talking on campus about the NCAA tournament and after winning the regular season, I do not see them being fully focused. Yes, I know the top seeds have had tremendous success in this tournament but the conference has never been this deep. If they get by Minnesota and a Michigan or Wisconsin and have to face Michigan State, the play must be on State. If Indiana gets to the finals and plays Ohio State, Indiana will seek revenge and will cut down the nets. While Indiana is a great pick to win the entire NCAA tournament, the buzz around the team is quiet for the conference tournament and the focus just will not be there.

BEST BETS:

WINNER: Michigan State +325. DARK HORSE: Minnesota +2500

Written By: Billy Attridge @WATT_05

2013 ACC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro North Carolina
Date: March 14-17

For the past 15 years, the two most well known schools in the conference, Duke and North Carolina, have routinely dominated the ACC. Since 1997, Duke and North Carolina have had a share of the regular season title and ACC tournament title 14 times! Miami wrapped up the regular season title for the first time in school history, so one might ponder whether the tournament title is in their hands as well. Since 1997 the regular season champion has only won the tournament 7 times, less than 50% in that 15 year time span. Let’s take a look at the top four seeds this year, which lower seeded teams have the pedigree to pull an upset or two, and the best bet for the tournament.

#1 Seed- Miami (FL) (+305):
Miami’s success is due to their star Sophomore PG Shane Larkin, and their ability to play at various paces depending on the opponent. 6’11 Senior F Kenny Kadji has been impressive as well, averaging nearly 14 points and 7 boards a game, thanks to his ability to hit the 3 and pull bigger defenders away from the block. Jim Larranaga is a possible COY candidate, and has the smarts to guide this team to its first ACC championship in school history. Miami has one of the most experienced squads in the country in terms of age and games played. There are concerns as of late with this bunch. They have dropped 3 of their last 6 in the ACC, including a stunner at home to a feisty Georgia Tech squad. They only go about 7 deep, so depth COULD be a concern playing 3 games in 3 days in Greensboro. Also to note they are 0-2 on neutral sites this year, and have only beaten one team by 10 or more away from home in the conference (GT, 1st ACC game). This core group of players has only once made it to the ACC semi-finals.

#2 Seed- Duke (+110):
Duke has very solid guard play, starting with Sophomore Quinn Cook. Cook has a 2.17 A/T ratio, and has the ability to control tempo efficiently. Senior Seth Curry and Freshman Rasheed Suliamon are explosive scorers, and Junior Tyler Thornton is a pest on D. Senior Ryan Kelly back on this team makes them an immediate championship contender, as he is the MVP (Most Valuable Player) on ANY team this year. His ability to hit 3’s at 6’11 gives Duke so many options on the offensive side, opening the floor for the guards to penetrate and clearing the lane for Senior Mason Plumlee to go to work. Duke is undefeated with him, beating Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State, Miami and a rising UNC team on the road. With Ryan Kelly back in the lineup, Duke is the best team in this conference. Without Kelly, they floundered on the road, losing 4 games and squeaking 2 wins out vs. Wake Forest and B.C.

#3 Seed- North Carolina (+500):
Roy Williams has his club playing their best basketball of the year, and the team chemistry has been building throughout the season. UNC has covered 5 of their last 6, and despite the poor showing vs. Duke, has been the hottest team in the conference. UNC is able to move the ball fluidly on offense, and has racked up a 1.38 A/T ratio, mostly due to 5 out of their top 6 having a positive A/T ratio. Williams has been able to exploit mismatches by utilizing a smaller lineup to spread the floor for open 3-point looks and driving lanes for Sophomore stud P.J. Hairston. Hairston is hitting 38% from downtown, and Juniors Leslie McDonald (37%) and Reggie Bullock (44%) have been on fire as well. What I really like about UNC as of late is their ability to win on the road in hostile environments. Going into GT (W by 12), Virginia (W by 12), and Maryland (W by 11) shows the progressive strides this club has taken since the beginning of the year. The one concern I have with the new lineup is the lack of size on the defensive end. Athletic big men like Miami and Duke both have will cause trouble for UNC in the paint.

#4 Seed- Virginia (+1000):
Tony Bennett has arguably the best defensive team in the conference, with an ACC POY candidate in Joe Harris. The smooth 6’6 small forward can hit the 3 (44%), and is physical enough to create off the dribble and score in the paint. Virginia’s strength is a slow-tempo, grind it out, defensive game. Only allowing 54.4 ppg and 5.2 3-point FG a game makes them a definite threat to win the tournament. That being said, I’m not crazy about the guard play on the offensive side of the ball, and feel that many times the offense passes up quality shots and depends too much on Harris. If teams can shut down Harris, it usually means trouble for Virginia.

Contenders and Sleepers:

#5 seed North Carolina State (+900):
One of the most inconsistent teams all year, proving that with their regular season ending loss at FSU. They like to push the pace, and have the guards to do so with Lorenzo Brown and C.J. Leslie. Senior F Richard Howell is a man on the boards, and Senior Scott Wood has been lethal from downtown (42.3%). Their inability to close away from home has left them with a 3-6 ACC road record, and that is why they missed out on an opening round bye.

#6 seed Maryland (+4000):
Hesitated putting them here. The talent is prevalent with 7’1 lottery pick Alex Len and Sophomore guards Dez Wells and Nick Faust. Len has the potential to dominate a game, and Faust has adjusted well after being relieved of PG duties to Seth Allen. The youth is very evident though, and with youth comes mistakes. I don’t see a deep run with a team that makes as many boneheaded plays as Maryland does, though a deep run is exactly what they’ll need to make the field of 64.

#9 seed Georgia Tech (+10000):
This team is extremely young, but has the confidence of an experienced squad. I really like the fact that they can win on the road, or at least play competitive. In the last 5 road games, they are 3-3, with the losses at Clemson by 3, Virginia by 28 (revenge spot for UVA), and BC by 2. They beat Miami (by 2), WF (by 1) and VT (by 10). They play tough D, and have the length to give some athletic teams trouble.

Best Bets:

North Carolina State (+900):
Obviously I will not be shocked if we see Miami and Duke on Sunday, but I like the way the schedule lines up for the Wolfpack. They should blow by VT, and have revenge games vs. UVA and MIA if they make it that far. This preseason ACC favorite has slipped off everyone’s radar, but has experience and shoots nearly 50% with a quality A/T ratio (1.15). They hold opponents to under 31% from 3, and have already beat Duke and lost at the buzzer to Miami. They are definitely worth a look.

Written By: @ToddFuhrman – Columnist for OutKickTheCoverage

This bracket isn’t designed to project the selection committee’s field. The bracket’s not designed to appease fans of a certain team who’ve spent a full year waiting for selection Sunday and a chance at redemption. The bracket’s not here to reward teams that “deserve a chance” because they have an artificially high strength of schedule or RPI. The Vegas bracket is designed to show how the top 68 teams in the land would be seeded by oddsmakers and bettors to create the perfectly balanced field.

Before you jump into the actual match-ups, I’ll prepare Georgetown and Gonzaga fans for what you’re about to see: egregious injustice! For our purposes, team’s are judged by their entire body of work and the resume they’ve compiled since November. Every loss isn’t created equally, just ask Middle Tennessee State who took a nose dive in the poll after losing to FIU as double digit favorites.

It’s important to include the explanation that the pointspread isn’t designed to predict the future but rather to indicate relative strength between 2 teams to stimulate betting interest. The point differential between a team ranked #1 and #11 doesn’t correlate to the difference between #12 and #22. Pointspreads are for betting and the power ratings/rankings we compile are merely an outline for the finished product you see on every casino’s LED boards.

Special thanks to professional bettor @Payneinsider for his input and collaboration in compiling your up to the minute power charts as of Wednesday morning.

Teams that appear with conference affiliation included have already clinched their conference’s automatic bid.

#1 Overall Seed: Indiana
(1) Indiana vs (16) Liberty (Big South) / James Madison (Colonial)
(2) Michigan St vs (15) South Dakota St (Summit)
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Ohio
(4) Oklahoma St vs (13) Davidson
(5) Arizona vs (12) Boise St / Lasalle
(6) Minnesota vs (11) Memphis
(7) Belmont (Ohio Valley) vs (10) Kentucky
(8) Denver vs (9) North Carolina

#2 Overall Seed: Louisville
(1) Louisville vs (16) Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) / LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
(2) Michigan vs (15) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
(3) Creighton vs (14) Weber St
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Stephen F Austin
(5) Colorado St vs (12) Colorado / Oklahoma
(6) St Louis vs (11) Cincinnati
(7) Middle Tennessee St vs (10) North Carolina State
(8) St Mary’s vs (9) Iowa

#3 Overall Seed: Duke
(1) Duke vs (16) North Carolina Central
(2) Kansas vs (15) Pacific
(3) Ohio St vs (14) Iona (MAAC)
(4) Pittsburgh vs (13) Bucknell
(5) Missouri vs (12) Ole Miss
(6) Wichita St vs (11) Illinois
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Iowa St
(8) Marquette vs (9) Notre Dame

#4 Overall Seed: Florida
(1) Florida vs (16) Southern
(2) Gonzaga vs (15) Albany
(3) Miami vs (14) Harvard (IVY)
(4) Georgetown vs (13) Valparaiso (Horizon)
(5) VCU vs (12) Stanford
(6) Virginia vs (11) UCLA
(7) San Diego St vs (10) Baylor
(8) Kansas St vs (9) UNLV

Power 68 (teams in bold have clinched automatic bids)

One interesting note you’ll see Akron listed at #62 despite not being tabbed as our MAC champion. After losing their star PG Abreu, the Zips have been downgraded to 2nd best in their league but still rank in our Power 68 field until their on court performance changes.

1 Indiana
2 Louisville
3 Duke
4 Florida
5 Gonzaga
6 Kansas
7 Michigan
8 Michigan State
9 Wisconsin
10 Creighton
11 Ohio State
12 Miami
13 Georgetown
14 Pittsburgh
15 Syracuse
16 Oklahoma State
17 Arizona
18 Colorado State
19 Missouri
20 VCU
21 Virginia
22 Wichita State
23 St. Louis
24 Minnesota
25 Belmont
26 Middle Tennessee State
27 New Mexico
28 San Diego State
29 Kansas State
30 Marquette
31 St. Mary’s
32 Denver
33 North Carolina
34 Iowa
35 Notre Dame
36 UNLV
37 Baylor
38 Iowa State
39 North Carolina State
40 Kentucky
41 Memphis
42 Cincinnati
43 Illinois
44 UCLA
45 Stanford
46 Mississippi
47 Colorado
48 Oklahoma
49 Boise State
50 La Salle
51 Davidson
52 Stony Brook
53 Oregon
54 Stephen F. Austin
55 UCONN
56 California
57 Butler
58 Southern Mississippi
59 Villanova
60 Bucknell
61 Temple
62 Akron
63 Tennessee
64 North Dakota St
65 Illinois State
66 Valparaiso
67 Providence
68 BYU

Written By: “The Bird Walker” – Former Sun Belt Conference Champion

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Championship Odds:
Middle Tennessee -380
Arkansas State +600
South Alabama +1700
Western Kentucky +1900
Arkansas Little Rock +2300
Florida International +2600
Florida Atlantic +5500
North Texas +7000
Louisiana Lafayette +8500
Troy +17500
Louisiana Monroe +70000

Top 3 Seeds:

Middle Tennessee (27-4, 19-1):
The Blue Raiders have been the clear leader of the pack, however Kermit Davis enters his 11th Sun Belt Conference Tournament with a giant bagel next to his name (0-10). First Team all SBC guard Marcos Knight will try to get the critics of his coaches back. For some reason MTSU always come up short when it counts. Will this season be any different?

South Alabama (17-11, 14-6):
The Jaguars rely heavily on SBC POY Augustine Rubit. South Alabama has dealt with a rash of injuries in the backcourt, not to mention interim head coach Jeff Price is trying to land the gig on a permanent basis. Despite being from the last coaching regime, If South can win the conference championship it will be tough not to bring Price back with the interim title removed. Can Rubit put the Jags’ on his back and carry them to the Big Dance?

Arkansas State (18-11, 12-8):
Ark State has the all conference duo of Brandon Peterson and Trey Finn. With the tournament being played in Hot Springs, the Red Wolves will have home court advantage due to the easy travel. Can they play off the emotion of the crowd and make a run? The Red Wolves and Trojans have combined to cover 69% of their games this season when they tip in the state of Arkansas.

Friday’s Games:

#6 Western Kentucky vs #11 LMU
Look for the youth of WKU to start slow but eventually defeat the Warhawks.

#8 ULL vs #9 UNT
Preseason POY Tony Mitchell posts a monster game and the Mean Green advance in a barn-burner.

#7 FAU vs #10 Troy
All league backcourt Greg Gantt and Stefan Moody come out firing and the Owls survive to play Saturday.

Saturday’s Games:

#4 FIU vs #5 UALR
FIU over-achieved during the regular season and having to play UALR so close to home doesn’t do them any favors. UALR was 12-4 ATS at home this year in what is virtually a home game. Look for UALR to win comfortably.

#1 MTSU vs #9 UNT
MTSU dominates UNT in this matchup and covers easily. The Mean Green have not handled adversity well this year and today is no different.

#3 USA vs #6 WKU
This game goes down to the wire with Rubit coming up big for the Jaguars. There’s a lot of history between these two schools and this game will be neck and neck.

#2 ASU vs #7 FAU
Arkansas State is 8-5 ATS at home this year. In another virtual home game, the Red Wolves prevail in a close game.

Sunday’s Games:

#2 ASU vs #3 USA
In a game of two evenly matched teams, the home court advantage comes into play and the Jaguars season ends. Trey Finn hits the game winner as ASU moves on.

#1 MTSU vs #5 UALR
With a virtual home game (4,000-5,000 fans) in Hot Springs, UALR could win this game. However, MTSU has been too strong throughout league play and barely escapes with the W.

Monday’s Sun Belt Championship Game:

#1 MTSU vs #2 ASU
Will the Blue Raiders be able to finally get Kermit Davis to the Big Dance? Is the home court advantage enough for ASU to shock the world? This is the year for MTSU, they’re head and shoulders above the rest of the league and SHOULD march on to the madness that is the NCAA Tournament.

Sun Belt Best Bets:
The combination of MTSU’s flameouts, South Alabama’s depleted guard depth, and the SBC tourney in Hot Springs adds a ton of value to the Arkansas schools. There’s value investing in Arkansas State at +600. Hard to justify betting MTSU at -380 when they haven’t won this tournament in a decade. If you’re looking for a long shot, FAU at +5500 is worth a look. Moody and Gantt are the best guard tandem in the Belt, if they get hot, look out.