Archives February 2013

Kelly Olynyk Most Efficient Offensive Player in College Basketball Image hosted by PayneInsider.com

College Basketball Physicality: Efficient Offensive Teams Fight Back



Written By: Rich Salvatori @DickieSalvatori

As we approach the stretch run of what has been an exhilarating college basketball season, numerous trends come into focus which lend credence to the success of certain programs. The area seemingly most important has been the screen game and offensive efficiency as it pertains to physicality.

You can’t pigeonhole teams into having one primary feature, but it’s extremely relevant that a sizable number of top line contenders have separated themselves employing a certain playing style that seems different than the status quo.

Analysts everywhere have commented on the physical nature of the game recently. Oftentimes we see tendencies that give calls to the defense, especially in unknown block/charge scenarios. Because of that, it iterates why elite teams have made attempts to counteract the defensive favoritism by playing more physical on offense. Indiana, Michigan State and Gonzaga are utilizing strong off ball screening to free up open men for easy looks.

Michigan State lost Draymond Green from 2011 and didn’t return an elite scorer at any position. Yet, the Spartans’ remain entrenched inside the top 20 in offensive efficiency. Let’s take a look at some of their tendencies.

One of their favorite sets lines four men across the foul line extended. The point guard passes to the wing, runs off a screen set by one of the forwards, the screening forward pops out and receives the pass from the wing. The point guard sets a back screen for the off guard, who, if not open, sets a cross screen for the center/forward on the opposite block.

Michigan State recently lost to Indiana. While the Hoosiers relied more on ball screens and dribble penetration in versus the Spartans’, they do a tremendous job in the screen game, too. Midway through the first half Indiana lined up in an out of bounds formation that included two forwards near the foul line, a shooting guard in the opposite corner and a forward in the near corner. The Hoosiers’ inbound the ball to the near corner as they run the opposite guard off a dual screen at the top of the key. Initially not open, the guard appears to flash toward the timeline before the in-bounder flashes down while cutting back up and setting a back screen for the guard to dive down toward the basket and call for a pass.

Simply put, Indiana is doing its homework. Its unlikely defenders can stay with a player coming off three consecutive screens – teams with excellent communication breakdown in such situations, as was the case with Michigan State.

Indiana’s “go-to” is utilizing the screen game to open up their interior assets for easy looks. The Illinois loss was an excellent example. Hoosiers’ used a variety of plays in that game which required Zeller to initiate back to back screens. One scenario, Zeller sets a back screen for a cutting guard before immediately pursuing a pick and roll opportunity at the top of the key with the point guard. Another set, the point guard waits to see if the cutting guard can get open, and then passes to the opposing wing, once Zeller is done with his initial back screen he sets a flare screen for the point guard. Indiana has even implemented sets in which they have Zeller cut back to the basket immediately after the second screen, or receive a back screen himself.
Everyone knows Zeller is a monster in transition, so Tom Crean should be given tons of credit for putting him in advantageous situations – constant movement is extremely difficult for collegiate big men to follow.

Gonzaga, a guard-dominated program in seasons past comes to mind, too. The emerging Kelly Olynyk’s a major reason as to why their recipe has changed. Olynyk is shooting 66% from the field and is regarded as the most efficient offensive player in America.

Coach Few likes to use Olynyk at the top of the key. Kelly will flash down to the low block or Few runs two bodies toward the part of the floor where Olynyk has the option of using one of the screens for a curl option to the foul line, or he can wave players through and wait for a screen from the other forward enabling him to flash to the opposite block if the ball is reversed.

Tournament season has always been guard-dominated, so it makes sense teams want primary ball-handlers making decisions at times when games have increased possession value. Not saying the college game is going to change drastically this postseason, but I can’t remember a season in recent memory in which numerous teams utilize interior passing offense like the aforementioned.

Michigan State, Indiana, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Georgetown have all trended in that direction. It could be shown that some of those programs have always done this, Michigan and Syracuse in particular. It should be noted, these teams have more skilled big men than the majority of the nation -far easier to conduct such offensive alignments when you have front-court players with such abilities.

Keep an eye on the teams noted throughout the remaining parts of the season. Sure, they might be the best of the bunch; but their success is reliant upon the vision of their coaches and offensive formations as opposed to elite talent levels alone.

Bracketology 2013 Field of 68 From a Sports Betting Perspective Image hosted by PayneInsider.com

Bracketology 2013: College Basketball Field of 68 from a Sports Betting Perspective



Written By: @ToddFuhrman – Columnist for OutKickTheCoverage

Everyone in sports has an agenda. Fans see their teams and programs the way they want to see them. Reporters do whatever it takes to get the story. Major networks showcase franchises they know will get ratings. Seeding the NCAA tournament is no different; it’s an exercise with inherent bias using an imprecise “science” rewarding teams based on a list of arbitrary metrics more convoluted than quantum physics. There are only 2 factions of sports enthusiasts who benefit immensely from remaining impartial; bettors and oddsmakers. While the NCAA denies the existence of both given their strong stance against gambling (legal or otherwise), I’ll trust our power charts to seed the field of 68 over just about anyone associated with college basketball.

First things first: I don’t envy the job of the committee establishing the entire field when they haven’t watched nearly as much basketball as they should to warrant their position. I’d feel more comfortable if picking tournament worthy teams fell on the shoulders of college basketball journalists, bettors, and oddsmakers heavily invested in getting the process right.

After seeing the most prominent journalists in college hoops convene in Indianapolis to go through a mock selection process this past weekend, it prompted me to take my ratings (in collaboration with @Payneinsider ) and put forth our own version of bracketology. Payne works closely with the sharpest sports bettors in the industry and it only made sense to gather another set of data points before releasing opening round matchups for the NCAA tournament. In building the bracket we didn’t worry about scheduling issues, conference affiliation, or the other nuances the real selection group has to deal with but we did pick the best field we could while including 31 conference champs and the 37 best eligible at large teams.

All lists by region follow the normal S-Curve in seeding the top #1 seed with the worst #2 seed etc on down the line. Make sure you’re sitting down with a stiff drink depending on your level of fanhood because this can be an eye opening experience compared to the mainstream matchuos every other bracketologist will feed you the next few weeks.

#1 Overall Seed: Florida Region
1) Florida vs 16) Robert Morris (NEC Champion) / Charleston Southern (Big South Champion)
2) Kansas vs 15) South Dakota St (Summit League Champion)
3) Michigan St vs 14) Weber St (Big Sky Champion)
4) VCU vs 13) Akron (MAC Champion)
5) Arizona vs 12) Oklahoma
6) Cincinnati vs 11) Stephen F. Austin (Southland Champion)
7) Iowa vs 10) Kentucky
8) Belmont vs 9) Iowa St

#2 Overall Seed: Indiana Region

1) Indiana vs 16) Southern (SWAC Champion) / Norfolk St (MEAC Champion)
2) Syracuse vs 15) Iona (MAAC Champion)
3) Miami vs 14) Stony Brook (America East Champion)
4) Creighton vs 13) BYU
5) Oklahoma St vs 12) North Carolina
6) St Mary’s vs 11) UCLA
7) New Mexico vs 10) UNLV
8) Baylor vs 9) Virginia

#3 Overall Seed: Gonzaga Region

1) Gonzaga vs 16) Long Beach St (Big West Champion)
2) Duke vs 15) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun Champion)
3) Wisconsin vs 14) Bucknell (Patriot League Champion)
4) Colorado St vs 13) Notre Dame/Denver (WAC Champion)
5) Ohio St vs 12) St Louis
6) Georgetown vs 11) Oregon
7) San Diego St vs 10) Ole Miss
8) Missouri vs 9) Memphis

#4 Overall Seed: Michigan Region

1) Michigan vs 16) George Mason (Colonial Athletic Champion)
2) Louisville vs 15) Harvard (Ivy League Champion)
3) Pittsburgh vs 14) Davidson (Southern Conference Champion)
4) Minnesota vs 13) Butler/Maryland
5) Middle Tennessee St vs 12) Detroit Mercy (Horizon League Champion)
6) Wichita St vs 11) Colorado
7) Illinois vs 10) North Carolina St
8) Marquette vs 9) Kansas St

If there weren’t stipulations and the tournament was about picking the 68 best teams to compete for the national title, here’s how the teams would look ranked 1-68 by some of the sharpest power numbers you’ll find. There will always be discrepancies between bettors and oddsmakers as to the exact rank of teams. Instead focus on the general range where a team lands and that gives you a complete look of how we view the best teams in the country.

1 Florida
2 Indiana
3 Gonzaga
4 Michigan
5 Louisville
6 Duke
7 Syracuse
8 Kansas
9 Michigan State
10 Miami
11 Wisconsin
12 Pittsburgh
13 Minnesota
14 Colorado State
15 Creighton
16 VCU
17 Arizona
18 Oklahoma State
19 Ohio State
20 Middle Tennessee State
21 Wichita State
22 Georgetown
23 St. Marys
24 Cincinnati
25 Iowa
26 New Mexico
27 San Diego State
28 Illinois
29 Marquette
30 Missouri
31 Baylor
32 Belmont
33 Iowa State
34 Virginia
35 Memphis
36 Kansas State
37 N.C. State
38 Ole Miss
39 UNLV
40 Kentucky
41 Stephen F. Austin
42 UCLA
43 Oregon
44 Colorado
45 Detroit Mercy
46 Saint Louis
47 North Carolina
48 Oklahoma
49 Akron
50 BYU
51 Denver
52 North Dakota State
53 Uconn
54 Notre Dame
55 Illinois State
56 Maryland
57 Butler
58 LaSalle
59 Wyoming
60 Stanford
61 Southern Mississippi
62 Arkansas
63 Providence
64 Louisana Tech
65 Boise State
66 Davidson
67 Bucknell
68 Northern Iowa

Teams in bold are schools that wouldn’t make the regular field because they come from one bid leagues (NDSU) or lost their spot to smaller conference champions.

2013 MLB Win Totals Sports Betting Image hosted by PayneInsider.com

Major League Baseball: 2013 MLB Season Win Totals Courtesy of Atlantis Casino



Written By: @PayneInsider – Professional Sports Bettor

Spring training is here and the start of baseball season is SIX WEEKS AWAY! That can only mean one thing: Season win totals are out for Major League Baseball. Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals lead the pack and are the odds on favorite to win the 2013 World Series paying their backers $770 for every $100 wagered. The Angles, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Tigers are hot on the Nats’ tail vying for that illustrious World Series Crown.


Today, Atlantis Casino released their 2013 MLB Season Win Totals which pegs the Nationals, Tigers, and Dodgers all at 90-wins a piece.

Other teams of note include the New York Yankees at 86.5 wins, Los Angeles Angles at 89.5 wins, and the Cincinnati Reds at 88.5 wins. The boys from Beantown check in at 79.5 wins.

Staring down the bottom of the barrel are the Houston Astros, who are projected for a meager 59.5 wins. They’re expected to share cellar space with the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, both projected for 64.5 wins.

Season win totals for all 30 MLB teams are below along with a BEST BET!

 Sports Betting 2013 MLB Season Win Totals Image hosted by PayneInsider.com

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BEST BET: San Diego Padres OVER 74.5

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks Sports Betting Image hosted by PayneInsider.com

College Basketball Betting Situations, Sandwiches and Spots Conducive to Making your Bankroll Grow



Written By: @ToddFuhrman – Market Analyst

Situations and scheduling yield the best betting opportunities. Talk to any sharp college hoops bettor and they will have games penciled into their betting calendar weeks in advance. Schedule analysis requires the foresight to look ahead and if everything breaks the right way, you’ll gain the competitive edge before numbers hit the betting boards. Here are some choice spots worth noting for the upcoming week in college basketball

Monday:

Kansas vs Kansas State
The Jayhawks are in free fall, losers of their last 3 conference games. Expect a max effort against in state rival Kansas St but be prepared to pay a price as books realize the sharps were itching to bet the Hawks here and inflated the opening number to -7.5. Deeper analysis actually reveals this to be a bit of value considering KU was -4 in Manhattan and even with the adjustment for current form, the Hawks should be closer to 9 or even 9.5 pt favorites here.

Wednesday:

Boston College vs Wake Forest
Wake comes in fresh off a dismantling of FSU with a revenge date against Georgia Tech on deck. BC finally gets another ACC opponent they can handle in their building brimming with confidence from the near miss against Duke. The lone concern is how a young team handles disappointment from the upset that could have been…in my opinion, they let it build confidence and attack the Deacons with confidence.

Depaul vs Notre Dame
Nobody fears seeing the Demons on their schedule but coming on the heels of a 5 OT thriller and back to back games against Syracuse/Louisville, the Irish should fear a letdown. Depaul and Notre Dame went to OT in their first meeting only a few short weeks ago. Although the Irish covered the 6 in the role of road favorite, it took extra time to do so this game will be closer than most people expect.

Air Force vs UNLV
If there’s one thing we know about the Rebels is that they struggle away from home. AFA dropped both games on their recent road trip so it’s fair to expect a fully focused effort against the same UNLV team they pushed to OT at Thomas & Mack. The situation only improves when you take a glance at UNLV’s upcoming schedule which includes home games against San Diego St and Colorado St within the week.

Washington vs Oregon
The Ducks took care of business in their own building when the teams met on January 26 so expect revenge to be on the Huskies mind. Washington limps into the game 1-6 straight up their last 6 knowing any tourney hopes are all but dashed. Despite their win against Utah on Saturday, Oregon sorely misses PG Domenic Artis and will continue to struggle on the road until someone assumes the primary PG role. If you can grab the Huskies -1.5 or less, consider the situation worth noting.

Thursday:

George Mason vs Drexel
Trust me when I say the Patriots should be foaming at the mouth with this game looming. Mason blew a 38-25 halftime lead because they couldn’t contain Damion Lee and his 29 pts over the last 20 minutes. Drexel is 3-11 ATS as a favorite this year which includes Sunday’s cover against James Madison. I’m not buying the Dragons as chalk, especially against a Patriots team looking for revenge desperate to make a push for the 2 seed in the Colonial.

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