San Diego Chargers Futures and Super Bowl Odds as high as 48/1 Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

Watching the 2014 NFL Futures Market Progress throughout the Preseason

Written By: Billy Attridge

One way investors can monitor the sports betting market is by comparing futures odds over a specific set of time. One practice I perform each summer is compiling odds from sports books prior to the NFL preseason, and then note changes after the teams dress rehearsal’ game has concluded.

For most teams, that’s the 3rd game, but every year there are exceptions and this preseason was no different. For Carolina and Kansas City, it was week 2. Although, Jeff Fisher and his Rams took a far different approach this season, he typically uses his teams final preseason game as the dress rehearsal. This exercise provides an opportunity to peak at teams the sports betting marketplace has found value in. Using odds from BetOnline, here are some notable changes:

San Diego Chargers (33/1):
The Chargers were 48/1 prior to the preseason, and it’s easy to see why their odds have dropped. Quarterback Phillip Rivers has had a stellar start to the NFL year (15 for 18, 166 yards and 1 TD), and Coach Mike McCoy has resurrected this offense by utilizing talented players like Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The main concern for San Diego lies in the defense, where a questionable secondary, coupled with tackling concerns, could lead to disaster. A spot they couldn’t afford any injuries was up the middle, and with Kwame Geathers now on the IR, it could be tough to overcome that loss. Regardless, if they can produce an above .500 record in the division, and Rivers can continue his outstanding play behind center, the Chargers have a very good shot at reaching the playoffs this year. This isn’t a public move, some of the sharpest bettors I speak to have invested in San Diego futures.

DON’T MISS OUT: SAVE 50% ON PAYNEINSIDER’S 2014-2015 NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL COMBO PACKAGE! THE LAST 7 SEASONS COMBINED A $100 SPORTS BETTOR HAS MADE OVER $51,000!!!

St. Louis Rams (85/1):
One of the few teams to see a drastic odds change in either direction this year; the Rams were 50/1 before July to grab the Lombardi Trophy. So what happened? Yes, Sam Bradford is out for the year with his second ACL tear. But does backup quarterback Shaun Hill require a 30-cent drop? Let’s dig deeper. Rookie left tackle Greg Robinson has struggled, and guard Rodger Saffold has failed to see any significant time this preseason (injury). The Rams NFC West opponents all bolster quality defensive lines, which could present major problems for OC Brian Schottenheimer, who I’m not a fan of to begin with. Starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson is out 4-6 weeks with an MCL sprain, leaving the secondary scrambling for a quality replacement. Outside of the defensive line, it’s difficult to find talent on this roster. With one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, the Rams may be in a heap of trouble this year. In sports betting, we often hear the phrase; ‘Buy low, Sell high’. Not sure there is a better time to sell St. Louis than right now, Week 1 against a team wiseguys are high on this year in the Minnesota Vikings.

Indianapolis Colts (18/1):
A significant drop from 25/1, the Colts are hopeful that this is their year to challenge for the AFC Title. This move makes sense. Depending on where you shop, the Colts range from (-150 to -190) to win the AFC South and secure a playoff berth. Andrew Luck is primed for another quality season, and with an abundance of talent at the WR/TE position (Hilton, Wayne, Nicks, Allen, Fleener), this offense has Top 5 potential. Though Luck and the offense will likely receive the newspaper clippings, it’s the defense that may be the difference. GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano have worked on the defensive side, bringing in DE Arthur Jones, LB D’Qwell Jackson and S Mike Adams. The Colts also face the mediocre-at-best NFC East, playing the division’s best team (Eagles) at home on MNF. And let’s not forget, their home in the AFC South is likely the weakest division in all of football.

College Football Futures Market for Four Team Playoff Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

Predicting Futures Market for College Football Playoff

Written By: Richard Salvatori

2014 will mark the first season in collegiate football history that a four team playoff will decide the national champion. Conference alignment plays a major factor in the overall potential for various candidates to get into this ‘tournament’. There’s a ton to take in when analyzing futures for each team as to whether or not they can be one of the top four.

Scheduling is must be factored heavily, with projected point spreads and an analytical breakdown of each portion of a contender’s schedule being additionally imperative to understanding the likelihood that a team will have a chance to play for it all come January. We broke things down in consideration of conference affiliation and make an attempt to provide you with the best understanding possible regarding the prospects of all the major contenders.

ACC: Florida State (-250)

There’s a reason the ‘Noles are -250 to get to the playoff. The idea of this club going undefeated again is a wild card for sure, but the scheduling advantages are there even in an improved ACC. Clemson, Florida and Notre Dame all come at home, with Miami and Louisville on the road. A look ahead to their projected spreads show they will be nothing less than a double digit favorite in every game this season.

Because I’m leery about the selection committee and their willingness to appoint a one-loss ACC team into the four team playoff, I don’t think there’s much value in actually betting this listed future. You could essentially lay -110 and go over 11.5 wins if you felt they needed to run the table, but regardless, Florida State is a squad that should undoubtedly find themselves in the title picture. The ‘Noles are absolutely loaded from top to bottom, but if you wanted to knit-pick, Jimbo’s largest concern heading into the 2014-2015 campaign…their punting situation.

DON’T MISS OUT: SAVE 50% ON PAYNEINSIDER’S 2014-2015 NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL COMBO PACKAGE! THE LAST 7 SEASONS COMBINED A $100 SPORTS BETTOR HAS MADE OVER $51,000!!!

Big 12: Baylor (+420)

Everyone and their mother loves this Sooners team and I will admit; they are as good as anyone in the trenches with fantastic offensive and defensive lines. They finished 2013 with a bang beating rival Okie State on the highway and they hammered Alabama in the stand-alone, nationally televised Sugar Bowl – they enter 2014-2015 with expectations as high as any other team. The Sooners get Kansas State, Baylor and OSU all at home. OU has the luxury of not having to leap the final hurdle that is a conference championship game. All of that has led to them receiving the fourth best odds to make it to this playoff.

The Big 12 is a tougher task than many give it credit for. Baylor jumped out to an impressive start and faltered late in 2013. This Sooner team is built better than that Bears club, but the fact remains that anything can happen in this conference. Texas will be vastly improved and trips to West Virginia and TCU are not going to be layups, either. Staying away from this conference altogether seems like the logical thing to do if you believe the Sooners are over-hyped in the minds of the media. Personally speaking, my gut tells me Baylor would be the Big 12 representative if any team from this conference represents the four team playoff, and at +420 rather than OU’s +190 it makes more sense from a value perspective.

SEC: Alabama (-115); Auburn (+240); Georgia (+300); LSU (+310)

Jacob Coker remains a bit of an unknown and some have questioned his ability to stay composed on and off the field, yet he is a seriously talented arm and has more skill position talent around him than Nick Saban has ever assembled in Tuscaloosa. That said, he’s had trouble beating out Blake Simms who Nick Saban wanted to turn into a running back this year.
Once again the offense will rely on the ground and pound it with their three strong RB talents, which should take a load off of Coker’s shoulders. Trips to Ole Miss and LSU could be stumbling blocks for the Tide, but they will be motivated and looking for revenge off that ridiculous loss to Auburn. They also get the Tigers’ at home in the final game of this 2014 slate, you can bet that one has been circled since the offseason.

Nick Marshall and this Auburn offense could be even better without Tre Mason. However, the defense is the looming question most war eagle faithful have, can they bend just enough to get back in the national title picture? I believe at some point that defense will break.

Georgia is finally healthy on both sides of the ball and they have a senior QB who figures to be better in big spots than Aaron Murray was. Hunter Matson impressed last year when given the opportunity and Murray’s injury a season ago might be a blessing in disguise. Having Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall out of the backfield to lean on early and often takes this Bulldogs team to the next level. In addition to having senior wide-outs Chris Conley and Michael Bennett to work with, UGA returns nine starters on defense and a wealth of talent on the OL. This team gets Clemson at home opening weekend and travels to South Carolina on September 13. A trip to Missouri won’t be easy and the Florida game in Jacksonville will likely decide the SEC East.

If LSU can beat the Tide in that all important, November 8th affair, they could be the team to come out of this conference. But that’s not all; Les Miles’ gang travels to Auburn and Florida back to back weeks in early October, it’s likely they split those.
Youth at the QB spot will be another concern, as Les Miles is still (allegedly) toying with the idea of using both sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris early on in different scripted packages. Harris is a kid with enormous potential and while accuracy and efficiency are concerning, he can make big plays at any moment. We believe he’ll be the guy Les rolls with, and that makes the Tigers very intriguing, especially with freshman Leonard Fournette looking to take over ground duties.

All in all, the Tide have appeal here. Coker could become a breakout star and even if ‘Bama trips up one time, if they win the SEC with just one loss, they’ll be in that final field of four.

Pac 12: Oregon (+125); USC (+550)

Oregon’s shortcomings have become an expectation to some extent. They continually trip up against Stanford, but do get the Cardinal at home this year and look to be front and center in what is a deep Pac-12. The Ducks get an early season visit from Michigan State in what could be one of the better games on the September slate. A trip to UCLA October 11th won’t be easy, and they also get Washington at home and Utah on the road. The schedule isn’t overly brutal and the Ducks will be favorites in all of their games thanks to Heisman frontrunner Marcus Mariota. The Ducks could be destined to get into this tournament after coming up short a season ago, but it’s the test that they could get in the conference title game that concerns me most.

USC is a team few in the media seem to be acknowledging, but professional bettors are high on the Trojans. Yes, an early season trek to Stanford will be tough and Arizona State has a tremendous offense as does rival UCLA. But the Bruins are largely overrated and Brett Hundley simply doesn’t have the accuracy to get them over the hump. Notre Dame comes at home, but that road trip to Arizona on October 11th comes in lieu of a revenge spot against the Sun Devils, making a potential landmine as the Wildcats could be underrated. Still, they can probably lose one game, so long as they beat the Bruins, and go to the conference championship.

Yes, the Ducks are probably better on paper right now, but the Trojans are a serious challenger with an absurd amount of skill. Injuries and depth are the main challenge for USC and the loss of Josh Shaw doesn’t help, and now Anthony Brown has quit after calling Steve Sarkisian a racist.

Big Ten: Michigan State (+375); Wisconsin (+550); Ohio State (+600)

The Spartans are clearly formidable and they come off a fantastic 2013 campaign. An early season trip to Oregon concerns us and they still have both Michigan and OSU after that. They lost some really important defensive players and a two loss season is likely.

The decision to go with Tanner McEvoy at QB in Madison is highly intriguing. A 6’6, 220 lbs senior, McEvoy used to attend South Carolina before going the JUCO route. He played DB one year ago at Wisconsin and now gets the nod over Joel Stave to start under center for the Badgers. The schedule presents opportunity for Wisky; they open with LSU, but outside of trips to Northwestern who I think is down and having internal issues and Iowa, the should is a cake walk. As was the Case with the Spartans, assuming they lose to LSU this weekend, they really don’t have any feasible way of getting in as a two loss club. For that reason, we will pass on them as well.

We know that Braxton Miller is out. We also know something else too: that might not really matter at all. J.T. Barrett can play and has been getting acclimated to the system for over 3 months as an early enrollee and the Buckeyes are loaded on both sides of the ball. They get Virginia Tech at home in week two and Michigan to end the year, but outside of a November 8th trip to East Lansing, this schedule is beyond manageable. How much better is Braxton Miller than JT Barrett? Week 1 features the Buckeyes at Navy where they were 17-point favorites before the loss of Miller. Since then, bookmakers re-opened the contest -12.5 and professional bettors proceeded to bury the game as Ohio State is -16.5 with J.T Barrett calling the shots now.

If (and it’s obviously a big if) Barrett proves to be as composed in the pocket at this level as many say he is, the Buckeyes aren’t likely to see a drop-off in Urban Meyers athlete-friendly quarterback system. This is our riskiest pick and Georgia could be viewed as a more logical selection as they sit in the SEC East, but the boys from Columbus intrigue us and the number next to their name is a steal at the current price. This is the perfect example of taking advantage of overreaction in the marketplace.

Final Predictions: Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State

Value Bets: Ohio State, Baylor, Georgia, USC

Kansas City Chiefs Futures Season Win Total Under 8.5 Wins Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

Pythagorean Theorem, Turnover Margin, and how it Correlates to the Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Expectation

Written By: Billy Attridge


* LVH Opening Total: 8 (O-120, U+100)


* BetOnline Current Total: 8.5 (U-170)

* BetOnline AFC West Odds: (+650)

The NFL Regular Season kicks off in less than a month, but for serious sports gamblers and investors alike, the preparation for this upcoming season likely began at least three months ago. The amount of data and information that is pertinent to having success as a sports bettor takes time to acquire. One team that jumps off the page as being overvalued based on last year’s results, and could be destined for a sub-par season, is the Kansas City Chiefs.


If we take a peak at a simple mathematical formula, the Pythagorean Theorem, we observe the Chiefs should have won approximately 9.57 games in 2013. They won 11 games, or 1.43 wins more than the basic statistics tell us they should have. Pythagorean Theorem accounts for turnover margin (KC +18), and allows for even those mathematically challenged individuals (it’s ok, we know you’re out there) to arrive at a solid base for handicapping a 16 game season.

DON’T MISS OUT: SAVE 50% ON PAYNEINSIDER’S 2014-2015 NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL COMBO PACKAGE! THE LAST 7 SEASONS COMBINED A $100 SPORTS BETTOR HAS MADE OVER $51,000!!!

We can further examine my skepticism of Kansas City by evaluating the quarterbacks they faced last season. In 2013, the Chiefs defense forced 21 interceptions, 3rd most in the NFL. Impressive, but who was under center for the opposition? Blaine Gabbert, Michael Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrell Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, Jeff Teul, Matt McGloin and an injured RGIII. The Chiefs 17 interceptions against these quarterbacks (9 games) accounted for almost 81% of their picks for the entire season! This year, they have been “blessed” with the NFC West (Kaepernick, Wilson, Palmer and Bradford), and those physical defenses. A late season visit to Pittsburgh puts a definitive stamp on a much more difficult road for Kansas City in 2014. The AFC West division has strengthened as a whole in the off-season, and a game they must win to even sniff their season win total is Week 1; Kansas City is currently installed a 4.5-point favorite at home over the Titans. However, they will be without the services of their best wide-out, Dwayne Bowe due to a 1-game suspension.

The current Chiefs over/under number sits at 8.5, with the under heavily juiced (-165 to -195 depending where you shop). While I realize this is not the optimal market entry point, I would recommend playing this at the current number for a little less than an average wager. Some sportsbooks offer alternative betting lines; one may offer 9(-225) or 8(+100). Gamblers can often take advantage of these lines with a little work and some shopping around (please do not limit yourself to 1 or 2 books). Fundamental exercises such as line shopping and self-control are crucial to long-term success in the sports betting marketplace – and should be practiced daily!

Betting Questions Sports Investors Should Ask and Analyze Image hosted by PayneInsider.com

Questions Bettors should Ask and Analyze at the end of each Betting Season

Written By: Billy Attridge

Successful sports bettors have unique skills and talents that allow them to profit in a market where less than 2% can. Work ethic, discipline, and talent for analyzing information and data makes them a rare breed. The glitz and glamour of placing a wager or taking a position on a sporting event often overshadows the incredible amount of labor and diligence put in by professional bettors each day. One practice that sports bettors on any level should apply to their betting acumen is; review! At the end of any given betting season, whether your pockets are flush with cash or you ended in the red (please bet responsibly), you should be asking yourself these types of questions:


Did I consistently beat the market?

This cannot be stated enough. Great indications of a successful sports bettor is their ability to get out ahead of the sports betting market and hold a ticket with a more advantageous number than Pinnacle/BOL or a sharp Vegas book closed at. Using the BetOnline ‘True Line’ (ex: MLB Cinn-113, SF+104, True Line is -108.5/+108.5) is an excellent benchmark for determining your sports trading aptitude. Professionals realize that any less than 75% success at this skill spells trouble for their bottom line.

How many fortunate wins/unfortunate losses?

This can be extremely tricky to gauge, it takes a realistic person, but with the right mindset it can be done and is exponentially beneficial. These wagers can be defined as games that had an event/series of events that altered what seemed to be a decided outcome. You can be on the “right side” of a game and lose. Conversely, you can be on the “wrong side” of a game and cash a ticket afterwards. For example, Minnesota played Baltimore last year with a total of 42 set for the game. 42 points in the 4th Quarter (5 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes) pushed this game ‘Over’. As a disciplined and rational investor, it is not outlandish to chalk this as a “Bad Beat” for the player who wagered on the ‘Under’, and an extremely fortunate result for those who dabbled with the ‘Over’. Understanding that we are “gamblers” and a massive swing during the course of a sporting event is not uncommon, this type of review should be labeled: “Proceed with Caution”.

Do I have an unjustified bias when I wager?

While there are numerous trends and styles of betting, many recreational (and some professional) bettors may have a bias towards a certain subset of teams. The difference between the two is professionals have a reason towards siding with home double-digit Underdogs in the NFL, while many recreational bettors routinely pound Favorites and ‘Overs’. Tracking certain subsets (ex: Road favorites -2.5 to -9.5 in the NBA) and recording your results may not only expose a negative tendency, but allow an investor to realize a strong area in his handicapping. Maintaining spreadsheets and logging your positions is vital to anyone taking on sports betting as a serious investment. Adapting to a change in the market comes much easier to a bettor who reviews each season and deciphers where profitable positions still exist, compared to the player who continually plays into –EV (expected value) situations.

2014 NFL Week 1 Opening Point Spreads via Payneinsider.com

Pro football Week 1 point spreads; every NFL line move since opening odds

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The National Football League isn’t necessarily “back,” just yet, but things are rounding into shape as we head towards the Draft on Thursday, April 8th. With the NFL schedule set in stone, offshore sports book BetOnline has opened its doors up for Week 1 betting action for the 2014 NFL season.

There are limitations regarding what can be bet at this very early stage in the game (some books allow up to $5K on sides and $1K on totals), but it’s never too early to consider opening perception surrounding NFL teams in the minds of bookmakers. Below is the full list of NFL Week 1 openers, both sides and totals, as well as, the current live odds at the time of this post.

NOTE: We highlighted (in bold red) the largest NFL Week 1 line moves so far.

2014 NFL Week 1 Opening Point Spreads and Over/Unders via Payneinsider.com


The Kickoff Special on Thursday, September 4th will feature the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, as they host Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers. Betonline opened the Seahawks 3.5-point favorites over the Packers, while, one prominent sportsbook in Las Vegas aligned Seattle 5-point favorites. To take it one step further depicting dramatic difference in oddsmaker opinion, Sportsbook.com currently lists Seattle as 6.5-point favorites.

Outside of the Jaguars visit to Philadelphia, there is no other double-digit spreads to speak of. In fact, there is not another NFL Week 1 point spread greater than six points, and that speaks to the conservatism typically shown by bookmakers at this early stage in the NFL betting market.

Indianapolis will head to Denver for the Sunday Night opener as six-point underdogs, the second largest spread on the board. Other notable match-ups include two legendary franchises squaring off using the 4 o’clock hour on the first Sunday when San Francisco (-3) heads to Dallas. The Monday Night doubleheader will feature San Diego (+3) in the desert during the later bout while the Giants (+3.5) visit the Lions earlier in the night.

BETTING MLB SEASON WIN TOTALS image hosted by PayneInsider.com

Betting MLB Season Win Totals

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Spring training has concluded, the ball is officially rolling on the 2014 MLB season. Getting a feel for teams early on and gauging what a ball club could be capable of relative to perception is imperative for successful MLB betting. Weather your prerogative is to monitor teams throughout the year and hand-pick specific quality betting spots, or you choose the futures market, having a keen understanding of Vegas’ win total projection for each club is a good starting point for bettors to handicap a teams potential.


We’ve identified a few teams whose win projections stand out as having immense betting value, and we’ll attempt to touch upon what could make these opportunities quality investments.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa opened at 87.5 per LVH, 88 per William Hill and 88.5 at Atlantis in Reno. The Rays’ notched 92 wins a season ago despite competing in a division that housed the World Series champion.

There is an expectation that New York and Baltimore should both be improved this year, lending credence to the possibility that the AL East will be an even more difficult division to navigate through. Still, you have to like this number for Tampa if you can get the best of it.
Chris Archer looked incredibly sharp this spring, and we already know what David Price can do. Archer’s potentiality gives Joe Maddon a dynamic pairing to work with atop his rotation. Alex Cobb and Matt Moore really came on in 2013, but Moore did struggle at times in the second half of the year. He finished with a WHIP of 1.30 and went deeper than 5 1/3 only once during September.

The Rays’ youthful rotation could make things interesting later in the year as young arms have a tendency to wear down. Cobb and Moore combined to throw roughly 193 innings a season ago, but the presence of Archer should enable them to stay steady at a similar pace this season.

Offensively, Tampa won’t overwhelm opponents; they finished 11th in runs and 12th in BA a season ago. However, they do a fantastic job of getting on base and have quality role players that seemingly get clutch hits. If 23 year old Wil Myers comes on in his sophomore campaign, Tampa’s lineup will have more than enough to win the A.L. East and eclipse 87.5 wins in the process.

OVER 87.5 WINS

*******

Texas Rangers
Not long ago, Texas had been to consecutive World Series and was the class of the A.L. Heading into 2014, the Rangers look don’t project as high as many would have though.

Betonline sportsbook projects Ron Washington’s crew to win 88 games while LVH and Atlantis come in at 86.5. Texas won 91 a season ago, but they started the month of September 2-12 and while faltering down the stretch prior to missing the playoffs altogether.
The offseason saw them move Ian Kinsler in exchange for Prince Fielder, a shuffle that should leave them stacked with pop at the corners. Shin-Soo Choo was also a quality addition to the lineup and he ensures that they will have a small ball element attached to their approach in addition to enhancing OBPS.

The major concern for Texas is pitching. Outside of Yu Darvish, who is nursing a neck injury late in spring, there’s little in the way of an established mound presence. Martin Perez should continue to grow in what will be his third season in the majors, but this team is going to need a lot more from Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison if they want to survive the A.L. West. Neftali Perez and Tanner Scheppers form the basis of what could be a very strong bullpen, but that group won’t have a chance to shine if the starters fall off significantly.

Even if the Angels fail to meet high expectations, they will be stronger than last year and Oakland boasts a very balanced group overall. Seattle is a team currently being budgeted for a win total in the low 80’s, signaling a potential improvement of 8-10 wins compared to a year ago. The Mariners ranked 3rd in MLB in home runs, unfortunately, there were few base runners when balls cleared the fence. Seattle also had one of the ‘unluckiest’ bullpens – core numbers dictate their ERA should have been nearly a run lower than it actually was.
Improvements for the aforementioned squads likely come at the expense of Texas. I don’t necessarily see this team falling flat on its face, but the potential for them to slide in under 88 wins is certainly feasible.

UNDER 88 WINS

*******

Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been assessed a projection of 89 total wins, and that sort of figure makes the under look more than appealing. This franchise has long been dependent on quality starting pitching and this upcoming season could be the first in some time in which they truly lack that strength.

Kris Medlen is a workhorse who has immense expectation, but was dealing with injury issues recently and it was just announced he underwent Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Beyond Medlen, prospects are scarce. Atlanta must get a decent year from Julio Teheran. OVER 11.5 wins might be a decent prop to look at for the 23 year old who had an impressive campaign in 2013. The second time around for Teheran will be tougher, especially, if he has the weight on his shoulders of being the anchor to this Braves rotation.
Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood round out this group at the moment, but they don’t provide a ton of great news. Minor has been on the DL and is scheduled to make a minor league start soon in the hopes that he can be activated to the major league roster as soon as possible.

Beachy was placed on the 15-day disabled list who looks to be facing a second Tommy John surgery; the losses of him and Medlin are potentially devastating for both their futures and the Braves ball club.

Wood was impressive in spring training and could be a good bet to have a nice season for Atlanta. Still, he’s been little more than a bullpen piece to this point in his career and expecting legitimate success over the course of an entire season will be a tall task.

The rotation is in such shambles that Atlanta turned to thirty-seven-year-old Freddy Garcia, and when that didn’t work, they inked soon to be thirty-six-year-old, Aaron Harang. This team has as dynamic offense at times, but their propensity to be extremely streaky could have the Braves in deep trouble when cold. Lots of boom or bust pieces scattered up and down Atlanta’s lineup with B.J. Upton (Batting .233 his last 2,620 AB’s) and Dan Uggla (.235 his last 2,724 AB’s). In his 5th season, Jason Heyward looks destined for the leadoff spot, a guy who complied 446 strikeouts his first 4 seasons. If the Braves didn’t play in a division that could potentially boast the three worst teams in baseball, they would have zero chance eclipsing their projected win total.

UNDER 89 WINS

Betting College Basketball Teams that can Defend the perimeter Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

Betting on College Basketball Teams that Excel Defending the Perimeter

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Coming into the 2013-2014 NCAA basketball campaign lots of hype surrounded a massive crop of freshman phenoms. Analysts drooled at the opportunity to talk Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, and Andrew Wiggins any second they could.

Teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, and Duke have come on the scene this year (and in recent seasons) as contenders thanks to elite recruiting classes. Such classes typically center around size and interior power. Just look at Kentucky’s freshman crop this season, it includes 6’9 Julius Randle, seven-footer Dakari Johnson, and a pair of 6’6 guards in the Harrison twins – size feels like everything in the sport of basketball. The last two National Champions have been predicated on inside dominance, and it’s no wonder that coaches from top programs seek size and physicality in recruiting.

In no way should we disregarding the possibility that the largest basketball programs in America could easily find their way to Dallas this year, there’s lots to be said about the importance of guard play and, specifically, on the perimeter. Most fans tend to believe great defense is about shot blockers and rim protectors sending bunnies from penetrating guards into section 107, row 13, but this isn’t about making Sports Center‘s Top 10.

Several teams feature outstanding perimeter defenders, most notably the Ohio State Buckeyes. Thad Matta’s club was undefeated prior to back-to-back conference loses at Michigan State in overtime, and Iowa in Columbus. Despite stubbing their toe, Ohio State’s power rated 4th according to Kenny White’s college basketball power poll.

Aaron Craft leads Ohio State and is the consummate point guard, perhaps the best on-ball defender we’ve seen in years. Craft’s a true student of the game and his style has rubbed off on those around him in Columbus. Shannon Scott has become an elite defender paired with Lenzelle Smith and freshman, Marc Loving, making Ohio State a nightmare for opponents on the outside. The Buckeyes are ranked #1 in defensive efficiency.

Preseason odds featured the Ohio State Buckeyes 30-1 to win it all at BetOnline.ag – number has since dropped to 20-1 and was as low as 12-1 last week.

Another group which saw a similar change in its rankings is the team Craft and Co. knocked out of the big dance a season ago: Arizona. The Wildcats have more interior size than OSU, so we’re not saying they have the same defensive skill on the perimeter. Still, this Arizona team has a combination of length and quickness not easily duplicated.

Nick Johnson and transfer T.J. McConnell are fundamental defenders that communicate well with their bigs. Gabe York and Jordin Mayes are serviceable off the pine and freshman sensation Aaron Gordon is capable of defending every position on the floor. The Wildcats are 12th in defending the three (opponents shooting 28%), and 8th (41%) when it comes to two-point-land. Their gritty road win over a talented Michigan team was testimony to what they are capable of. Trailing the entire game, they locked up late and forced Michigan into difficult shots down the stretch.

Gordon’s presence alongside Brandon Ashley provides Arizona so much flexibility. McConnell, Johnson and company are comfortable switching in virtually any matchup. Drexel, Duke and Michigan all had early success scoring, but when Arizona is focused like they were in each second half of the aforementioned games, they’re a tough nut to crack.

Another team silently threatening to enter elite status is Villanova. Jay Wright has experienced a program resurgence that’s been largely predicated on excellent defense. The Wildcats are not great statistically defending the three ball, but those numbers are distorted due to Syracuse shooting 54% from deep, including; 7 for 11 combined from Cooney and Fair.

Bell, Hilliard and Wright’s other options are committed to the defensive end. Villanova has placed the utmost importance in locking down outside and negating ball penetration at every opportunity, evident by their 11th ranked two-point defense. That, in turn, has led to a more transition-oriented and free flowing offense ranked towards the top of National rankings.

Conference play and March Madness has been special the past years because the gap is closing – games are tight and parity has reared its head. When games become tight, guard play is magnified. Each possession becomes critical and coaches choose to put the ball in the hands of their most efficient players.

Getting to Final Fours and winning comes down to balance, that can’t be understated. While guards can win games late, opposing guards can protect leads late. Teams like Ohio State, Arizona, Villanova, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State are viable threats to go deep in the postseason thanks to what they bring defensively along the perimeter. Only time will tell if these groups make good on their hopes for late season success, but there’s one group I like the future prospects of moving forward.

NCAA Basketball Futures Bet: Oklahoma State Cowboys 12-1

NFL Primetime Sports Betting Picks Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

NFL Primetime Games and Their Intrinsic Betting Value

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Opening weekend in the NFL is unlike anything else – excitement and hope is in the air and sitting down to watch the nationally televised game is a trend most fans follow regardless of whether or not their team is involved. Week 1 featured four primetime affairs, starting with Baltimore and Denver Thursday night. Three games followed, all of which blew through bookmaker projections. All four Week 1 primetime games went over the number and did so by an average of 17-points per game. It got me thinking about this specific betting spot in terms of what value primetime games hold given the current state of the NFL.

Just this past Sunday, another marquee NFL matchup, although non-qualifying in terms of being a ‘primetime spot’, saw Denver and Dallas duel to a 51-48 final. This game proved to be just another reminder of the direction in which this league is heading.

That said, the tendency for higher scoring games amongst certain teams is not going unnoticed in Las Vegas. This past week, the Broncos’ total closed as high as 58-points at the Mirage, while last week’s Denver-Philadelphia matchup sported a total as high as 59! This week, four match-ups have totals in the 50’s – an unthinkable proposition just a few short seasons ago. Betting UNDER in games aligned in the 50’s was something the sharpest groups virtually did blind – not anymore. Adapt or die.

When talking totals and primetime games in particular, they offer incredible opportunities for gamblers in general. By the time Thursday night rolls around each week, people everywhere are salivating for action. Each Sunday, after the early games conclude both winners and losers flock to sports books and computers alike in hopes of doubling-up or chasing to get even. Because of that, primetime games offer a market unlike any other. Nowhere else throughout a weekend slate can you find such an event that features game theory and complete market economics in their utmost form. People work off incentives, and if you have a feel for what has transpired during the day, you can often transition that into opportunity.

Looking at primetime games in more detail; opening weekend was so eye-opening because it initially confirmed the tendency for games to sail over. That trend came on strong towards the end of last year and seemed to continue. The fact that the league seems to make an attempt to put its best quarterbacks in the national spotlight, knows these games will be their most viewed, knows the casual fan likes points, potentially instructs officials to call more “offensive-friendly” penalties (pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer etc.) lends credence to the notion, but it’s been proven inconclusive thus far.

For arguments sake, we looked at totals for the previous two seasons (as well as 2013) and broke down the data. While this is a very small sample size, it focuses on when the totals market completely shifted. For something like this, gauging totals from 1990 would be completely irrelevant and would skew data.

Season to date, the over is 11-6 (64.7%) in marquee games (7-6 since its opening weekend start of 4-0). During 2012, the over in primetime games finished at 19-28-2 (40.4%), while in 2011 it went 21-20-1 (51.2%). Remember, 52.38% is the break even point on bets placed at -110 vig.

That 2012 statistic is alarmingly telling because it was taken from the year in which it seemed like a plethora of totals went over. That clearly wasn’t the case. More to the point, certain teams specifically seemed to really adhere to that trend (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and New Orleans to name a few) as opposed to the league in general.

Considering the league has made a more widespread attempt to get variety in these primetime spots (Buffalo at Cleveland), it also makes sense that a lot of these games will go under. Jeff Tuel and Brandon Weeden deserve their T.V. time too, I guess.

That said, the data seemed to illustrate these betting markets were not only unique, but also extremely profitable if played the correct way. While there’s some truth to the “marquee quarterback” theory for primetime games, there were also some interesting trends relating to other factors.

Aaron Rodgers is as good a signal caller as there is in this league. As a result, he was thrust into the spotlight five times in 2012. The over in those games: 1-4, with the lone over-victory coming against a weak Texans defense that was still figuring out how to play in the wake of the Brian Cushing injury. Rodgers played division-rival Chicago in Week 2 on a Thursday night; that game went under primarily due to Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offensive line proving completely inept at dealing with Green Bay’s pass rush. Rodgers was also part of the Monday night 14-12 “loss” in Seattle that featured an infamous touchdown call by replacement officials as time expired. The Pack’s Week 12 matchup in New York went under thanks to Green Bay only mustering 10-points as a result of a myriad of serious injuries that limited their offense. They also saw their Sunday night affair at home against Detroit two weeks later fall short by a point in a game that featured heavy snow.

In each situation, factors outside of just the quarterback and their team’s offensive regularities came into play in a huge way. Generally speaking, divisional matchups went under at slightly less than 2-1, a reminder that rivalries tend to bring about tight play and extreme familiarity lending itself to lower scoring.

Moreover, the timing of matchups was also an important consideration. Philadelphia went well over the total in their opener with Washington back in week one, but followed that up with a home bout against Kansas City in week three which saw them play their third game in 11 days (prime under spot).

What does all of this mean? Well, we must continue monitoring, but the notion of primetime OVERS presenting quality betting opportunities has since been thrown out the window after going 48.6% over a 107-game sample size that focuses strictly on the current totals market. That said, each game is its own entity and possess its own set of factors to be considered.

Clearly, the NFL enjoys trotting its biggest names and games out on center stage. That might mean Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning, but in the end, it’s all relative. Sports betting is a market, and whether games are aligned in the 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, and yes, even the 60’s now…at some point the leg-work must be done. Circumstances and factors unbeknownst initially must be dissected for long-term profitability. Just remember, those primetime games will offer value, especially when the betting market is at its most voluminous point.

2013-2014 NBA Win Totals from Las Vegas Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

2013-2014 NBA Win Totals from the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

Written By: Payne Insider

The 2013-2014 NBA season is set to tip Tuesday, October 29th and with that, NBA Win Totals are now available for betting! The Las Vegas SuperBook released their win totals earlier today and the defending champion Miami Heat lead the pack at 60 wins. On the opposite end of the spectrum the Philadelphia 76ers are the lowest team on the totem pole with 16.5. The Knicks’ open at 49.5 wins and the Lakers’ at 33.5 wins.

Here’s the complete list of 2013-2014 NBA Win Totals:

ATLANTA HAWKS 40.0
BOSTON CELTICS 27.5
BROOKLYN NETS 52.5
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 27.5
CHICAGO BULLS 56.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 40.5
DALLAS MAVERICKS 44.0
DENVER NUGGETS 47.0
DETROIT PISTONS 41.0
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 49.5
HOUSTON ROCKETS 54.5
INDIANA PACERS 53.5
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 57.0
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 33.5
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 49.0
MIAMI HEAT 60.0
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 28.5
MINNESOTA T-WOLVES 41.0
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 40.0
NEW YORK KNICKS 49.5
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 50.5
ORLANDO MAGIC 24.5
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 16.5
PHOENIX SUNS 21.5
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 38.5
SACRAMENTO KINGS 31.5
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 55.5
TORONTO RAPTORS 36.5
UTAH JAZZ 27.5
WASHINGTON WIZARDS 42.0

NOTE: TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION

Pros Vs Joes Sports Betting Variety Image hosted by Payneinsider.com

Pros vs Joes: The Sports Betting Variety

Written By: Todd Fuhrman – Former Oddsmaker
Thoughts From: Payne Insider – Professional Sports Bettor

“Always ignore the boos, they usually come from the cheap seats.”

Pros vs Joes isn’t meant to piss you off…but it can’t guarantee you go undefeated either. It’s not meant to tell you that your bets are dead before the game is played just because they’re “square” or “public” (only Cubs futures fall into this subset). Rather Pros vs Joes weekly tweets are meant to inform like every other piece of content you read on social media. They’re a glimpse into the wallet of the professional to know how he or she has approached the betting card for the weekend by beating the market and taking a position on a game. The misconception that you have to bet dogs to be sharp or avoid road favorites to think like a professional is nearly as antiquated as the original iPhone. Tweets aren’t meant to say fading the public is the only sure fire way to win betting the NFL; although, it’s never a bad idea to be on the other side of the masses when there’s huge volume on a game.

No, Pros vs Joes is a tool you can use to aid your handicapping when that last game on a card may or may not make the cut. To all those out there (and they’re only a handful) that choose to troll and root against sides “just because,” your ignorance shows through unless you’re in possession of a ticket on the other side. Always remember blogs and twitter give you the option to read and follow whoever you’d like…don’t read content from anyone if all it does is get your blood boiling early Sunday mornings.

Pros vs Joes aren’t even the games you bet, but rather the numbers you take. Pros can move on a side +1, but what makes someone a Joe is if they bet that same game -3. It’s not a knock, but it can be the difference between winning and losing which is why turning a profit from this pursuit is always challenging.

Payne’s Thoughts…

Former Vegas oddsmaker, Todd Fuhrman touched many key components to the “Sharps” vs “Squares,” or in this case; “Pros” vs “Joes” battle that takes place daily. It’s always important to remember WHERE and WHY backlash rears its ugly head. Typically, it stems from jealousy and agendas, or just a fan with a bad tattoo of his favorite teams’ mascot. How dare you insinuate someones favorite team might not fair well come Sunday! Johnny and the boys are coming over and I’m making my good luck bean dip – no way our Cowboys lose!

The difference between the bettor forced to punch a time clock come Monday, and a professional bettor can be as little as 3% at year’s end. Just because the loud, drunk at the bar wearing his Ricky Waters jersey that’s now two-sizes too small defied the odds of a one-game-sample-size cashing his Seahawks -1.5 bet this weekend, doesn’t mean he’s going to be successful long-term opposing the Pros. In fact, if he did it enough times over a long enough sample size he’ll be cozied up under his local bridge.

At the same time, the idea of Pros and Joes clashing on EVERY single game is just inaccurate. It’s a bookmakers nightmare when it happens, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games daily. Last night, the Pros laid 5 and 5.5 with the Saints’ early in the week. Joes continued down that path with reckless abandon laying 7 thirty minutes before kickoff. Just because you happen to be on the same side as the Pros doesn’t make you sharp, you will never win more games laying 7 than you will 5.5, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games frequently. Over the course of 365-days that 1.5-points of lost edge could be the difference between a bettor hitting 51.5% and 54.5%. Punching a time clock or being a profitable bettor.

In the end, the information provided is to help YOU, the bettor. It’s also up to YOU, the bettor to distinguish the difference between information and information WITH VALUE. Being cognizant of the difference is pertinent to deciphering winning information from losing. Take a step back, open your mind, and realize that the sharpest bettors money doesn’t have a team logo. They’re buying teams (betting on) one week and selling (betting against) the next. The sharpest bettors have no bias, they’re only goal is to see their bottom line increase.

Copyright © 2024 PayneInsider.com. All right reserved