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Super Bowl XLVI Sports Betting Market Report

Proper market analysis, and information not factored into the betting line are two of the greatest tools to attack a Sports Book with. Low and behold, the biggest game of the year, the game that garners bragging rights, Super Bowl XLVI, offers both elements tenfold.

When breaking down any type of market, gauging the end price is critical in determining whether the current starting point offers substantial return on investment. For a sports handicapper, the betting market is no different. How this ties into Super Bowl 46 you ask? Well, on January, 22nd this line opened with the New York Giants a 3.5, and even 4-point underdog at some respected shops. As I type this on February 2nd, the New York Giants are an even money +2.5. Meaning, if you were inclined to wager on the New York Giants, your boat has sailed off into the sunset without you on it. The NFL is a league driven on parity, and with nearly 16% of all NFL games falling on 3 (largest key # in football), a wager on the New York Giants +2.5 has lost all value at this point.

Knowing where the line is going allows sharp bettors to get ahead of the market, and having had the opportunity to speak with @ToddFuhrman, Senior Race and Sports Analyst for @CaesarsPalace he’s estimated that only 15% of the total Super Bowl XLVI handle has been wagered thus far. Because of that, sharps raced to scoop +3.5/4 on the Giants, knowing the public sentiment will increase for New York as game day approaches. Bettors that took the points early with New York did so as a true position, but the majority dove in attempting to create a middle — and now as they watch this line tumble quicker than an old lady down a flight of stairs, it’s bringing joy to their face. Options are a beautiful thing, and sharp bettors now have a bevy of them. They can take back New England -2.5 and look for the game to land “3” like it does so often and clear two bets (middle). The other opportunity relies on the recreational bettor, and that opportunity will open an even greater middle position.

Casual bettors making their inaugural wager on Super Bowl Sunday aren’t interested in risking more money than they can win. It’s been this way for a long time, and that fact will prove itself as the NFL continues to grow yearly. The thought process of a recreational bettor is; why bet $110 to win $100, when I can bet $100 and win $130? The way you do that is by betting the Giants on the money line (straight up, no points). It’s easier for a novice bettor not to worry about points, price, etc. and strictly root in the team of their choice. Because of the expected Giant money line wagers come Sunday, it will drive the money line price down on the Patriots. So all the sharp bettors that took the Giants +3.5/4, will then come back with the Patriots money line near kickoff creating an even larger middle opportunity. From an information standpoint, speaking with the groups I do, they aren’t just looking for buy backs, but to take a true position on the Patriots money line at the target price of -130 or better.

Prop Bets: Propositional wagers typically yield a far greater edge than the game itself. Simply put, books have had 6 months to figure these two teams out and align a tight number, but with prop bets that’s not the case. With an influx of propositional offerings, it provides a greater opportunity for error that sharp minds can manipulate. Below are a couple free pick prop bets that you should consider making, and staying far away from.

Prop Bet To look At:

Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback? Yes (-155); No (+145).

This may seem like a crap shoot at first glance, but knowing team and player tendencies make these types of wagers show a positive EV over time. Based on supporting data we know the New York Giants like to receive when winning the coin toss. They’ve done so 8 of 10 times this season. On the flip side, New England almost always defers when they win. In fact, since the 2008 season the Brady-Belichick duo has deferred 28 consecutive times when winning the toss. This is the very reason why New York is nearly a 3-1 favorite to get the ball first in Super Bowl XLVI. What this means? The stronger-legged kicker in Stephen Gostkowski will be booting the ball down field to start the game. Gostkowski has a career average of nearly 66 yards per kick-off, but remember, he plays outdoors in some of the worst conditions where swirling winds are a huge factor. Fortunately, with this prop bet we have a common denominator that can further display tons of value. In 2005, Adam Vinatieri played for New England while averaging 61.5 yards per kick-off in the high winds of Foxborough, one season later he became a Colt and his kick-off average increased 4.2 yards in the comfy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. What a coincidence! Super Bowl XLVI is being played at Lucas Oil stadium where roughly 76% of all kick-offs have resulted in touchbacks. If we can see that same increase in average from Gostkowski come Sunday, that opening kick-off should sail 6-yards deep into the endzone at the very least. Don’t be shy, at that rate, this propositional wager shows a +EV rate well beyond it’s current price.

 Super Bowl Coin Toss Prop Bet Image by PayneInsider.comProp Bet to Avoid At All Costs:

Heads (-105); Tails (-105)?

Fun, and smart rarely find themselves located in the same sentence when the topic is sports betting. Apparently, betting which side a coin lands on constitutes entertainment? Having a complete stranger determine my fate in seconds with a flick of the thumb doesn’t come off as “fun,” to me. One sports book I speak with daily says the coin toss is their largest bet prop each and every Super Bowl. The problem is; the price point is -105 for both heads and tails. This might be the only wager in the history of sports betting where you are GUARANTEED to lose money over time. You would think people know flipping a coin is exactly a 50/50 proposition, but that doesn’t seem to stop them! For the 50 times you would win this wager, you’re getting paid $1.00. For the 50 times you lose this wager, you’re paying the books $1.05. Losing money isn’t fun, guys. STAY AWAY! Note: In the 45 previous Super Bowls the coin has landed on heads 23 times, tails 22.

Charles Barkley calls Weight Watchers a scam, plus he can’t stand to watch the Atlanta Hawks play.

No Lebron James? No Dwayne Wade? No problem!

Thursday’s TNT game between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks ended up being an entertaining triple overtime affair, with the Heat prevailing 116-109.

However, the highlight of the evening came early on during the first quarter of the game when TNT’s crew of Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller and Kevin Harlan failed to realize they were still on the air!

In the process, Charles Barkley calls Weight Watchers a scam (He’s a spokesman for Weight Watchers), and Sir Charles, Kevin Harlan, and Reggie Miller go back and forth about how painful it is to watch the Atlanta Hawks play basketball. Classic!

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Atlanta Falcons Versus New York Giants Wildcard Sports Betting Primer

Matt Ryan, and his Atlanta Falcons take flight to New Meadowlands Stadium set for battle against the New York Giants in hopes that the saying; “third times a charm,” comes to fruition. Matty-Ice, won’t have to rescind the nick-name, but failing Sunday and regressing to 0-3 in his playoff career might alter the meaning just a bit.

The stage was set early in the week when Giants defensive lineman, Justin Tuck labeled the Falcons front “dirt bags,” for their excessive play through, and after the whistle. But, whatever got into Atlanta’s offensive line has paid dividends. Labeled the weak link early on after surrendering 13 sacks to Chicago, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay to start the season, Atlanta finished in fine fashion ranking 6th in sacks allowed with 26. Something has to give here, as the Giants rank 3rd in the NFL with 48 sacks. Whichever unit wins this battle, likely ends up victorious in war.

My true number makes the New York Giants -1.25, so the current line (-3) is inflated after a nationally televised thrashing of their NFC East rival, Dallas Cowboys in a win or go home situation. One outfit I speak with has Atlanta circled, but there’s no rush to show their hand early with New York getting a majority of public money, and an expected influx of recreational bettors lining up at the windows fiending for playoff action this weekend. The recipe for Falcons success is simple, FEED THE HORSE! When Michael Turner has 21+ touches, Atlanta is 28-2 — and the Giants have issues stopping the run, allowing 4.5 yards per attempt (ranked 23rd).

The total is different story, sharp bettors gobbled up a key number in 49 early, sending it down to 47 where it currently resides. My true number is 45, so there was value moving on the opening number with a playoff atmosphere to boot. The move was also to get ahead of potentially poor weather elements forecasted for Sunday. However; If the weather holds, expect this number to tick back up close to where it opened with the aforementioned increase in public betting for the playoffs. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 times New York and Atlanta has squared off.

THINGS TO NOTE:

* New York Giants have not won a home playoff game since the 2000-2001 NFC Championship when they drubbed the Minnesota Vikings 41-0.

* The road team has covered 8 straight in this series.

Jason Taylor Farewell Locker Room Speech

The 73rd overall pick in the 1997 NFL Draft is saying; “No Mas” after 15 illustrious seasons. Jason Taylor spent 13 of those seasons helping the Miami Dolphins wreak havoc on any, and all opposing offenses.

Taylor, ranks 6th all-time in NFL history with 139.5 quarterback sacks, and was the NFL active leader before hanging it up on Sunday.

Jason had one last mission before calling it quits, though — and that was helping his Dolphins eliminate their long time rival, New York Jets from playoff contention. Gang-Green came to town pissed off in a must win situation, but Miami sent them back home empty handed, winning 19-17 with large contributions from J.T.

After the game, Taylor was awarded the game ball — and after that, he rewarded us with a memorable locker room farewell speech.

Sports Betting Free Picks by 1st Down N’ Dirty’s Kavita Channe – NFL Week 16 Merry Christmas



We caught up with Kavita Channe straight from Sin City this week to give us her weekly Free Picks in the NFL.

After going 2-1 last week, Kavita improves to 19-10 on the season through week 15 with her Football Pick predictions, and today she’s giving out 3 more winners for free! Rumor has it, she’s got a bonus Holiday gift for you at the end of the video.

It’s time to get Down-N’-Dirty Christmas Style with KC and her NFL Week 16 Sports Betting Picks! Happy Holiday’s!

Sports Betting Free Picks by 1st Down N’ Dirty’s Kavita Channe – NFL Week 15



We caught Kavita Channe a day early soaking up the sun in the pool, so why not deliver her weekly Free Picks in the NFL, poolside? She has something in store for you Saturday night, too!

After a 1-1-1 showing last week, Kavita moves to 17-9 on the season through week 14 with her Football Pick predictions, and today she’s giving out 3 more winners for free including; THE MOST ANTICIPATED GAME OF THE SEASON between New England and Denver.

Lets cut the crap, it’s time to get Down-N’-Dirty with KC and her NFL Week 15 Sports Betting Picks!

Sports Betting Free Picks by 1st Down N’ Dirty’s Kavita Channe – NFL Week 14



Sunday is here, and other than paying respects to the big guy upstairs, tuning into Kavita Channe for her weekly Free Picks in the NFL is something you can’t miss!

Not many are doing better than Kavita, she’s 16-8, hitting 67% through week 13 with her Football Pick predictions — and today she’s giving out 3 more winners for free including; a battle between Philly and Miami.

Lets get this party started, it’s time to get Down-N’-Dirty with KC and her NFL Week 14 Sports Betting Picks!

PayneInsider is donating 50% of sales to The V Foundation for Cancer Research in honor of Jim Valvano



Since the inception of PayneInsider nearly a decade ago, one particular week each and every year stands out from the rest. That week…is Jimmy V week. While a good portion of you are worried about the probability of Missouri covering 8-points, there’s a far bigger issue that should be consuming your time and efforts.

The V Foundation, for Cancer Research is top priority for PayneInsider this week, and I encourage it to be yours as well. Every dollar counts, so don’t think that it doesn’t! Whether it is a $1 donation, or a $1,000 donation, every contribution is extremely meaningful. Each year during Jimmy V week, PayneInsider adds up all sales for the entire week, and donates 50% of them to this fabulous cause that one in four are so tragically struck with.

Do your part…

Donate to The V Foundation: http://goo.gl/WNKdP

Greatest 14-yard run in football history

Bowl season is here, and that means match ups you aren’t typically used to seeing.

Browsing down the board of games, I come across many contests that immediately jump out as; “interesting.” Chalk up a check mark in the intriguing column for games that stylistically I can not wait to see. Houston Vs. Penn State and Wisconsin Vs. Oregon are teams playing against each other that couldn’t be any more different, but when I saw two history-rich schools that used to play frequently years ago, immediately thoughts raced to mind.

Notre Dame is slated to take on Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl, two teams that have left many with memories from a National stage — and two programs that are so eagerly scratching and clawing to get that back.

The first thing that popped into my head was Charlie Ward’s pass that was knocked down by Shawn Wooden in 1993.

Fast forward a decade to 2003, a memory that was tenfold less relevant, but one I’ll never forget comes from a 14-yard Lorenzo Booker run during garbage time.

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